Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s surrender to factions within the Republican caucus is unprecedented. Allowing for a change in the rules that would massively lower the threshold to call for a vote to oust him guarantees chaos among House Republicans. Lowering the trigger for a vote to replace the speaker from a majority of the 222 caucus members to just five means that moderate factions, conservative factions, and the hard right will all be able to recall McCarthy if he doesn’t do as they ask.
Even his proposal to gut the Ethics Committee wasn’t enough to win the support he needs to put him over the top.
McCarthy released a passel of “concessions” over the weekend that doesn’t appear to have persuaded enough of his detractors to give him a first-ballot victory in Tuesday’s vote. So it looks like, for the first time in a hundred years, there will be a floor battle for the speakership.
Related: Will This Concession Allow Kevin McCarthy to Become House Speaker?
What’s truly weird about this is that there is no other viable candidate for speaker of the House in the caucus. Rep. Andy Biggs announced his intention to challenge McCarthy several weeks ago, but only a baker’s dozen of Republicans are expected to vote for him. That means if the five or six hardcore McCarthy enemies hold their ground, House Republicans will implode and there will be blood before it’s all over.
Example: Some moderate House Republicans are threatening to work with the Democrats to elect a moderate House speaker.
Say what?
McCarthy ally Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said Monday his previous warning — that a band of moderate Republicans would work with Democrats to elect a centrist GOP speaker, if conservatives tank McCarthy — remains on the table.
“If a few won’t be part of the 218 members we need to govern, we’ll then find other ways to get to 218,” Bacon wrote in an op-ed in the Daily Caller.
For a threat to be effective, it has to be taken seriously. No one believes that any Republican in this day and age would work with the Democrats to undermine a GOP vote for speaker.
But it plays well on TV.
Nevertheless, the many-sided GOP cannot govern unless they have a speaker. And right now, there’s no candidate that both the conservatives and moderates would back for speaker of the House. McCarthy’s number two, Rep. Steve Scalise, has been prominently mentioned as a replacement for McCarthy. But congressional observers don’t see Scalise getting 218 votes either. And McCarthy backers are starting to get sick and tired of the half-dozen Republican obstructionists dictating to 200 or so GOP congressmen what the caucus should do.
Other dark-horse candidates could emerge if McCarthy drops out, according to Republican lawmakers. Among the names that have been floated: North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry, a McCarthy ally who is poised to chair a top committee next year; Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, a co-founder of the far-right House Freedom Caucus; and Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole, a veteran lawmaker who would be seen as more of a temporary caretaker for the job. None of those lawmakers, however, have expressed any interest in the job, and they would almost certainly run into the same dilemma as McCarthy: Preventing more than four Republicans from defecting in a bid to win the speaker’s gavel.
Yet Scalise is seen as the most likely alternative if McCarthy falters.
One senior GOP source says that Scalise can’t be seen by his colleagues as making moves to run for the powerful position, knowing full well that doing so could hurt his ability to get the votes if McCarthy ultimately falters. Yet the same source predicted that Scalise would have an easier time winning over the right-wing of the conference given that he is seen as more ideological than McCarthy.
Jordan has consistently cooled speculation that he’d be interested in the speakership. He’s about to chair the most important anti-Biden hearings on Capitol Hill and isn’t likely to trade that kind of fun for the drudgery of the speakership.
The one slim hope for Republicans to avoid rack and ruin would be for several of the anti-McCarthy members to vote “present” when the time comes. That would lower the number McCarthy would need for a voting majority in the House from 218 to 213. If that were to happen, he might be able to squeak by.
Or we may still be waiting for a new speaker this time next week.
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