When the story of the 2022 midterm elections is written, there will probably be considerable space devoted to the unlikely way in which Republicans were able to win their majority.
As it stands now — the Saturday before election day — the Democrat’s road to a Senate majority is extremely narrow. Best case scenario: they may be able to lose two seats while still retaining their 50-50 advantage with Vice President Harris casting the deciding vote.
The current board shows 6 toss-up races. Two of those seats are currently in the GOP’s hands — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Two other Republican-held seats in Ohio and Florida were toss-ups at one time but have moved into the “lean GOP” category.
If Democrats manage to win in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Republicans will have to win at least three of the remaining Democratic-held toss-up seats to win a one-seat majority. It would be a challenge but certainly not impossible.
But in a truly tsunami-like election, the wave becomes a destructive force for Democrats, meaning that even seats that “lean Democratic” may be in play. This means that Sen. Maggie Hassan’s New Hampshire seat is up for grabs as well as Sen. Patty Murray’s Washington Senate seat.
For our VIPs: GOP Momentum Continues to Hit Democrats Where It Really Hurts
As the path to a majority expands for Republicans, the Democrats’ road narrows. And as victory scenarios disappear, Democrats see the writing on the wall.
Hassan’s slight edge in her race is similar to GOP Sen. Ron Johnson’s modest advantage in Wisconsin. Numerous public surveys this week showed Johnson still leading Democrat Mandela Barnes, though by threadbare margins.
Like Arizona, which moved to “Toss Up” last week, the tightening in New Hampshire has come despite some national Republican groups pulling out of the state.
But while the top GOP super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, has been absent, more ideological groups have filled the gap, like the Steve Wynn-funded Our American Century ($2.9 million in ads) and Sentinel Action Fund ($1 million), which is a partner organization of Heritage Action, an advocacy organization affiliated with the Heritage Foundation.
Joe Biden won New Hampshire by seven points and in a close race, that may be key. Similarly, in Washington where Patty Murray is in the political fight for her life, Biden took the state by nine points. Biden is more popular in both those states than he is almost everywhere else, making presidential approval more of a factor.
And the Senate race in Washington State has become more competitive. Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is still the favorite, but Republican Tiffany Smiley — who is outspending Murray in the race’s final month — has gained ground. The race moves from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.”
Though polls have tightened in Washington, Smiley is still hampered by the state’s partisan lean. In the August primary, Murray (52 percent) and Democratic candidates combined for more than 55 percent of the vote. The political environment is trending better for Republicans now, but that’s a steep hill to climb.
If you’re looking for signs of an apocalypse for Democrats, these are two good places to start. At the beginning of this year, no one expected Patty Murray to have much trouble dispatching a Republican challenger. And while Hassan was vulnerable, Democrats decided to give “election denier” Dan Bolduc $3.2 million to win a primary against a more moderate candidate.
It worked — except Bolduc never folded and is now neck and neck with Hassan.
If these two Republican challengers end up winning, it’s a safe bet that 5 or 6 of the toss-up seats will fall to Republicans, giving the GOP a solid 4-5 seat majority in the Senate.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member