Russia, angry about Ukraine’s sophisticated ability to communicate in real time on the battlefield, appears willing to risk a ruinous war in outer space to stop it.
Elon Musk donated 20,000 Starlink satellites to Ukraine at an estimated cost of $100 million. The Starlink system, which offers high-speed broadband internet service anywhere in the world, has proven to be a valuable tool for the Ukraine army in the war. Easy to use, secure, and portable, Starlink has leveled the playing field with Russia in many respects.
Now, Moscow is warning the U.S. and Western nations that they may attack those satellites as legitimate targets of war.
“We would like to specifically stress an extremely dangerous trend that goes beyond the harmless use of outer space technologies and has become apparent during the latest developments in Ukraine,” said Russian foreign ministry spokesman Konstantin Vorontsovat at a UN meeting.
“Namely, the use by the United States and its allies of civilian, including commercial, infrastructure elements in outer space for military purposes,” he added, noting that the use of satellites “constitute[s] indirect participation” in the war. “Quasi-civilian infrastructure may become a legitimate target for retaliation.”
That fact hit home for Elon Musk last week when he indicated he was through paying the bill for Starlink on his own dime. He threatened to end Starlink service for Ukraine unless the U.S. government helped pick up the tab.
The Pentagon wisely declined. The Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space forbids the U.S. from using its own space assets to assist a belligerent in a war.
Frustration has reportedly mounted in Moscow and within Russia’s own ranks over its inability to maintain command and control as Ukrainian forces continue to make battlefield advances.
Vorontsov argued that the use of commercial satellites to benefit Ukraine in the war violates the Outer Space Treaty and warned that it could start a “full-fledged arms race in outer space.”
The spokesman’s comments come as speculation surfaced last week that SpaceX might cut off funding for Ukraine’s satellites if the Department of Defense does not agree to foot the bill.
Instead of direct funding, the Pentagon reportedly gave some assurances to Musk that they would help in other ways. This was enough to satisfy Musk.
Before DoD even came back with an answer, I told @FedorovMykhailo that SpaceX would not turn off Starlink even if DoD refused to provide funding
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 24, 2022
Recently, the Russians have had some success in disrupting the Starlink system when Ukraine’s troops begin advancing into Russian-held territory. But the value of the system isn’t affected by spotty outages on the front lines. Starlink has been a game changer for Ukraine and will continue to aid the Ukrainians in the war.
Russia risks a wider war if they attack a commercial satellite system operated from U.S. soil. It would be extremely difficult for Russia to only attack satellites servicing the Ukrainian battlefield. Every escalation from Putin is one more effort “to pull on the ends of the rope in which you have tied the knot of war.” It will soon get to the point where neither side will have the strength to pull the rope apart. In that case, the rope would need to be cut — with unforeseen results.
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