Democrats continue to talk about reclaiming the vote of white, working-class voters, but the reality is they have already failed in that effort.
A poll released earlier this month from the New York Times and Siena College sends a depressing message to Democrats. In the six battleground states claimed by Trump in 2016 that gave him his Electoral College victory, his advantage has either remained steady or even increased.
Meanwhile, Democrats’ huge advantage with black and Latino voters has shrunk. You don’t need a Ph.D. in political science to know that those numbers add up to a Trump victory in the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and Wisconsin.
Nearly two-thirds of Trump voters who supported Democratic congressional candidates in the 2018 midterms that flipped control of House to Democrats reported they would back the president over the three candidates currently leading in the Democratic primary, according to the Times.
Further, the new polls show Trump maintaining or strengthening his edge in the six key battleground states that swung the election in the Republican’s favor, particularly among white working-class voters who flipped to Trump after eight years of backing President Barack Obama while Democrats continue to fall behind this critical voting bloc.
“The poll offers little evidence that any Democrat, including Mr. Biden, has made substantial progress toward winning back the white working-class voters who defected to the president in 2016, at least so far,” the Times noted. “All the leading Democratic candidates trail in the precincts or counties that voted for Barack Obama and then flipped to Mr. Trump.”
A growing economy certainly has something to do with that. But Democrats have no one to blame but themselves.
The radicals running the party have little or no interest in ordinary Americans living in flyover country. Both Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders barely give lip service to the problems in rural and small-town America. They claim that taxing billionaires and punishing the productive class while giving us a bushel-full of free benefits will relieve the anxiety that so many feel.
The white middle-class isn’t buying it. The economy is reasonably good, people are more secure in their jobs, paychecks are rising slowly, inflation is under control — in short, what’s not to like?
Of those six states, Trump trails Biden in five of them. But the Biden campaign is faltering and it’s uncertain if he’ll come out on top when the primaries are finished. Against Sanders and Warren, Trump does considerably better and given the fact that we’re still a year out from Election Day, Trump’s advantages in money and campaign infrastructure have yet to make themselves felt.
Winning a bigger share of former Obama supporters among Democrats is Trump’s key to re-election. And less than 12 months to go doesn’t give the Democratic nominee much time to win them back.