Hardly a day goes by that I don’t get an email from the Trump campaign, touting another GOP primary poll showing the former president with a large lead. His campaign keeps beating this dead horse in an effort to convince GOP voters that there’s no use in supporting any other candidate, the primary is over, let’s move on to the general already.
The thing is, it’s the general election polls that have me unable to move on from the primary polls. Why? Because, as I’ve pointed out previously, general election polls show Ron DeSantis is much better positioned to win key battleground states than Donald Trump.
That doesn’t mean Trump can’t win those states — I still think he could win the general election. But I’m not nearly as confident in Trump’s ability to win the general as I am in DeSantis’s.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a Trump ally, acknowledges the same thing. “Can he win that election? Yeah, he can. The question is, is he the strongest to win the election? I don’t know that answer,” McCarthy said during an appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Tuesday.
Why would he say this? Because that’s what the polls say — and you know Trump puts a lot of stock in polling.
Consider this: a recent swing state poll from NBC shows Biden with a 2-point edge over Trump in swing states, while DeSantis has a 6-point edge over Biden in the same states. That’s an 8-point swing in favor of the Republican candidate if DeSantis, not Trump, is the nominee.
🚨SWING STATE POLL🚨
Biden: 48% (+2)
Trump: 46%Biden: 44%
DeSantis: 50% (+6)Source: NBC News
The eight-point difference in swing states is entirely consistent with most state level polling. pic.twitter.com/4ZpXZi4d3T
— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) June 25, 2023
State-level polling shows the same thing. A recent survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies reveals that Gov. DeSantis is in a much better position than Trump in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania — three states that will be crucial to Republican victory in 2024.
Related: DeSantis May Have Stronger Chance of Winning 2024 General Election Than Trump. Here’s Why.
In Arizona, DeSantis leads Biden by six points, but Biden has a narrow lead over Trump by two points. In Georgia, DeSantis gets 49% support compared to Biden’s 46%, while Trump again trails Biden by two points. Similarly, in Pennsylvania, DeSantis holds a three-point advantage over Biden, while Biden leads Trump by three points.
Trump has a habit of dismissing any poll that doesn’t make him look good, but these results can’t be written off. This poll shows Trump underperforming compared to a “generic Republican,” which tells you his position has weakened. Sure, he leads in GOP primary polling, but presidential elections are won by winning the middle, and whether it’s justified or not, Trump turns off enough voters to make winning key states in 2024 significantly more difficult.
I voted for Donald Trump twice, but after seeing just how quickly Joe Biden has damaged our nation, the most important thing to me is winning and getting this nation back on track. Time and time again, it looks like Ron DeSantis is the GOP’s safest bet. It’s up to GOP primary voters to take this information and choose which candidate they want to run in 2024. Let’s hope they make the right choice.
