Whether you’re supporting Ron DeSantis or another Republican or voting Democrat, you may subscribe to the common belief that Trump can’t win the general election. “He’s too divisive,” or “He’s got too much baggage,” or whatever explanation is given, they all generally sound plausible. Some even suggest that Democrats want Trump to be the GOP nominee because he’d be the easiest candidate to beat, and that’s why they’re going after him with bogus charges.
“[The Democrats] want Trump to be the Republican nominee,” Walsh tweeted in March after Trump was indicted on stacked charges put forth by Soros-backed prosecutor Alvin Bragg. “That’s obviously the play here. There is no other conceivable reason to arrest and perp walk him on a bull—t misdemeanor charge. I might be overestimating the tactical intelligence of the idiot power-hungry hacks behind this. But if there is any political strategy then that has to be it.”
The problem with this theory then and now is that there’s no reason to believe that Trump can’t win in a general election. According to the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, Donald Trump has a six-point lead over Joe Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup. And before you ask, this poll was conducted after Trump was indicted by the Biden administration and arraigned on a 37-count federal indictment. What does this tell us? It tells us that voters are rallying behind Trump in what is widely perceived to be a partisan indictment and abuse of power by Joe Biden. This makes sense since numerous polls have shown that a majority of Americans view the charges against Trump as politically motivated.
According to the poll, Trump has support from 45% of registered voters, compared to Biden, who has 39% of support, with another 15% undecided.
The poll also shows that Republican primary voters have rallied behind Trump since the indictment, giving him a commanding 45-point lead over DeSantis.
🚨 NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris
PRES:
(R) Trump: 45% (+6)
(D) Biden: 39%(R) DeSantis: 41% (+1)
(D) Biden: 40%
.
GOP PRES:
• Trump — 59% (+45)
• DeSantis — 14%
• Pence — 8%
• Haley — 4%
• Ramaswamy — 3%
• Scott — 2%
• Christie — 2%Harris (B) | 06/14-15 | 2,090 RV pic.twitter.com/z8Qo4HLowH
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 16, 2023
One problem Biden faces is that he secures less support from the voters of his party than Donald Trump does from Republicans. The poll showed that 86% of GOP voters back Trump, while 77% of Democrats back Biden. Trump also has more crossover appeal than Joe Biden. One-tenth of Democrats support Trump, while only one in twenty Republicans expressed support for Biden. Trump also has an edge with independent voters.
Related: Will Biden Actually Be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
Biden seems to be the best option Democrats have at this point, as well. In a hypothetical matchup against Kamala Harris, Trump enjoys a 47% to 40% advantage. With polls like this, gambling the 2024 election on the theory that Trump can’t win is a risky bet. Many believed he was unelectable in 2016 — myself included. Democrats could be making a big mistake by placing all their chips on the strategy that ensuring Trump as the GOP nominee is their best chance for a Biden win in 2024. On the contrary, as long as Democrats are abusing their power to stop Trump, it improves Trump’s chances.
In fact, their blatant corruption will likely make it even easier for Trump to win next November.
