RESULTS: Battleground Pennsylvania: The Race for the U.S. Senate Has Been Called

Update 12:57 a.m.: Fox News projects that John Fetterman will win the race for U.S. Senate against Dr. Mehmet Oz. This represents a pickup for the Democrats.

Update 11:20 p.m.: Oz is closing the gap with Fetterman. About an hour ago, Fetterman was leading Oz by roughly 174,000 votes. Now, Fetterman’s lead has been cut down to just under 35,000 votes. This is gonna be a close one.

Update 10:35 p.m.: DDHQ projects that Democrat Josh Shapiro has been elected governor of Pennsylvania. However, the Senate race between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz is still too close to call.

Decision Desk HQ projects Josh Shapiro (D) elected governor in Pennsylvania.#DecisionMade: 10:13pm EST

Watch our livestream: https://t.co/94KbTlttPz pic.twitter.com/PNOMO2QzHR

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 9, 2022

Update 8:15 p.m.: Polls closed at 8 p.m., so we’ve got a long way to go, but results are starting to come in. Fetterman currently has a lead, but that is largely due to the votes coming in from Allegheny County, where blue Pittsburgh is. Much of the state remains to be tallied, so sit tight!

Check back throughout the evening for updates about these important races in Georgia. Up-to-the-minute results powered by DDHQ are below. For all races across the U.S., click here.

It’s impossible to overstate the importance of the elections tonight in Pennsylvania. The battle for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Penn.) could decide control of the U.S. Senate, and the gubernatorial race could have major implications for the 2024 presidential election.

In the gubernatorial election, Democrat Josh Shapiro has had a steady lead in the polls over Republican Doug Mastriano. Shapiro has a RealClearPolitics average lead of 10.7 points, and his smallest lead comes via the notoriously accurate Trafalgar Group, which has him up 4.3 points. This seat is likely to remain in Democrat hands, which is why all eyes tonight will be on the Senate race in Pennsylvania, the outcome of which could decide the balance of power in the Senate.

For much of the general election campaign, Lt. Governor John Fetterman has had a steady lead in the polls, achieving as much as an 8.7-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average of polls over the summer—but the polls have been tightening ever since, and most recent polls have Dr. Oz ahead, albeit by a slim margin. RealClearPolitics projects Dr. Oz to win this race, while FiveThirtyEight gives Fetterman a 54% chance of victory. It’s a true toss-up race and anyone’s guess who will emerge victorious.

Many believe that there were stronger GOP candidates in the Republican primary than Oz, but Trump’s endorsement sealed that deal. Oz has struggled to overcome his status as a carpetbagger, but was significantly boosted by his recent debate with Fetterman. The debate gave the voters their first real opportunity to see Fetterman in action as he recovers from his stroke. Despite all the accomodations made to help him communicate, it was an absolute train wreck, and post-debate polls saw Dr. Oz take the lead for the first time.

I suspect the race between Oz and Fetterman will be a close one, so stay tuned for regular updates.