So far, we’ve seen no evidence that the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling has altered the trajectory of the 2022 midterm elections. At this point, generic ballot polls appear to be stable. There is no denying that more of the polls have shown Democrats with a slight edge, but as I recently pointed out, polls showing Democrats with an edge have generally favored Democrats all year — and are still in the minority.
But let’s look at another poll. A new AARP poll of battleground districts shows that Democrats are in deep trouble. The poll, which surveyed 56 of the most competitive House districts, was conducted by Biden and Trump pollsters at FabrizioWard and Impact Research.
The results should terrify the left. Republicans perform better than Democrats, and Trump outpolls Joe Biden. “The survey found a generic Republican candidate with a 4-point advantage over the generic Democratic candidate and that voters age 50 and over make up over 60% of likely voters in these districts and will likely play a key role in deciding the outcome of the midterm elections,” the AARP said in a press release.
The 50+ voting bloc will be particularly crucial in the midterm elections, as 80% say they are “extremely motivated” to vote in November. “In the 2018 mid-term elections, the 50+ made up about 60% of the electorate and they are poised to make up an even larger share of [it] in 2022, given their greater motivation to vote than those under 50.”
Mathematically speaking, if Republicans have a nine-point advantage in a voting bloc that is historically very reliable when it comes to voting and is bound to make up at least 60% of the midterm electorate, then Democrats are royally screwed.
Of course, as the saying goes, we shouldn’t count our chickens before they hatch. In other words: don’t get cocky.
Why not? Well, Republicans do have a reputation for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. PJM’s Stephen Kruiser wars that Republicans might just find a way to blow it for November by “once again playing into the hands of the Democrats,” legitimizing their efforts to codify same-sex marriage in federal law.
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“One of the reasons that the Democrats have been flailing so much lately is that they’re prioritizing social issues over things like inflation, gas prices, and the fact that the president of the United States keeps shaking hands with people who aren’t there,” Kruiser explains. “The handful of idiot Republicans who signed onto this bill lent legitimacy to an obsession of the Dems that they haven’t been getting any traction with.”
This is an extremely valid point, as we’ve reported before that polls show that abortion and other social issues aren’t nearly as important as economic issues like inflation right now. Heck, no one even cares about the Jan. 6 Committee either, yet Democrats won’t shut up about these issues.
All indicators suggest that the 2022 midterm elections are ripe for Republicans to take back control of the House and possibly the Senate as well. Experts have said that the Democrats’ fate was sealed by June. Still, that’s no reason to assume that Republicans won’t find a way to screw things up.
