Last year, when the inflation rate had jumped from 2.0% to 5.4%, Americans were justifiably concerned. Ahh, but we had nothing to worry about, according to Joe Biden. He insisted that “no serious economist” believed inflation was going to be a prolonged problem. In other words, all was well. Just go about your business, because everything is fine.
“There’s nobody suggesting there’s unchecked inflation on the way — no serious economist. That’s totally different,” he said a year ago today.
But the Wall Street Journal reported a week earlier, “Americans should brace themselves for several years of higher inflation than they’ve seen in decades according to economists who expect the robust post-pandemic economic recovery to fuel brisk price increases for a while.”
Even those economists couldn’t foresee inflation hitting 9.1%, as it did in June, but it’s clear that Biden didn’t want to listen to anyone who didn’t say what he wanted to hear. So, he dismissed any economist who warned about prolonged inflation as not being serious. I suspect that Biden wanted us to ignore those economists in favor of, say, Paul Krugman, who has spent the past year and a half talking up the Biden economy and dismissing unfavorable indicators faster than Kamala Harris staffers are resigning.
For example, in November, Krugman dismissed the latest bad inflation report. “People making knee-jerk comparisons with the 1970s and screaming about stagflation are looking at the wrong history,” he insisted. “When you look at the right history, it tells you not to panic.”
Biden similarly cited his cadre of serious economists in an interview with MSNBC’s Lester Holt.
“According to Nobel laureates, 14 of them that contacted me and a number of corporate leaders, it ought to be able to start to taper off as we go through this year,” Biden told Holt in February. “In the meantime, I’m going to do everything in my power to deal with the big points that are impacting most people in their homes.
To Biden, this is what serious economists sound like. As long as they push White House talking points, they were considered serious. If these economists actually exist, they’re probably the ones who have told him he’s presided over the best economic recovery ever. The supply chain crisis, record trade deficits, record high gas prices, and historic inflation is nothing to be concerned about. Everything is fine, and you’re a bigot if you say otherwise.
Related: How Serious Are Vulnerable Democrats About Tackling Inflation?
Well, I guess all good things come to an end, because last month, Krugman finally admitted he’d been wrong about inflation. “In 2021, U.S. policymakers, like many economists, myself included, badly underestimated inflation risks — as they themselves admit,” he wrote.
The question is, will the Biden administration finally start taking the issue seriously and stop cherry-picking the economists to whom they will listen?
I’m not confident that they will. While they do admit that inflation is “unacceptably high,” they are denying that the economy is headed for a recession, even though experts have been warning of a looming recession for a while now.
But I guess they aren’t “serious” experts—at least, not by Joe Biden’s standards.
