We’ve been talking about a red wave for a while. The Republicans are in their best position in a long time to sweep Congress and do so decisively. The Biden administration is the gift that keeps on giving, and voters are starting to get tired of Biden’s antics as the price of everything goes through the roof.
While conservatives often have a “sense of impending crisis,” as my PJ Media colleague Jeff Reynolds put it to me this morning — and let’s face it, the Republicans have a nasty habit of shooting themselves in the collective foot — all the conditions are in place for a red wave of historic proportions.
And it’s not just conservatives noting what could be coming. CNN is talking about it too. On Jake Tapper’s show on Monday, data analyst Harry Enten predicted that the GOP will take the House with its best numbers in over 80 years.
Mediaite reports that Tapper asked Enten if “things are looking pretty good” for the Republicans, and Enten gave a heck of a reply.
“I would say they’re looking very good from the historical context,” Enten replied. “Basically, I took the best Republican positions on the generic congressional ballot at this point in midterm cycles since 1938, that generic ballot basically is, ‘Would you vote for the generic Republican or generic Democrat in your district?’”
“And guess what, since 1938, the Republican two-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is the best position for Republicans at this point in any midterm cycle in over 80 years,” he added. “It beats 2010, when Republicans were up a point.”
Related: Red Tsunami Watch: Cook Political Report Shifts 10 Races Toward the GOP
Here’s how the history shakes down: in recent midterm years when the Democrats held a one-point advantage in generic ballot polls — 1998, 2002, and 2014 — the GOP won a House majority handily. In 2010, the Republicans had a one-point advantage and won a massive majority.
Right now, the Republicans have a two-point advantage, and, as Enten’s analysis points out, a single point can make a huge difference.
“Sometimes history isn’t always prologue, but my estimate for the 2023 House makeup, if the election were held today, which again, it isn’t, we still have five months, five months from tomorrow, would be Republicans, 236 seats to 241 seats. Democrats, 194 to 199,” Enten noted. “That’s based off a formula of seat-to-seat race ratings from the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections.”
Tapper reacted to Enten’s analysis by referring to it as “stomping” and making the obvious point that Joe Biden’s dismal approval ratings are playing a role in the dire predictions for the Democrats.
Enten agreed, making the point that presidential approval ratings are a major player in how political parties perform in midterm elections. He brought up the fact that Biden’s approval ratings on the economy are 26 points underwater, numbers that no president since Jimmy Carter has seen. He mentioned that particular number to show how historically terrible Biden’s showing with midterm voters is.
Granted, we have five months between now and the midterm elections, and a ton of things can happen. The White House and the Democrats could turn things around, or things could get worse for them. The predictions are there for a good GOP year, but it is enough to take away that sense of dread that many of us have?
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