It seems like it takes no time after an election for everyone to start looking ahead to the next one. I can remember people asking who would lead the MAGA movement once Donald Trump could no longer run, even during his first term. That day is coming, and the stakes are enormous. Whoever wins the Republican nomination in 2028 has to prove the movement can survive without Trump at the helm to energize the voters.
I expect that fight to turn bitterly divisive, as GOP primaries usually do. But it's starting to look like the establishment may already be rallying behind one candidate.
A growing faction of congressional Republicans wants to draft Secretary of State Marco Rubio for a 2028 run, and they see him as a stronger bet than Vice President JD Vance after the party's midterm wipeout. Politico's Meredith Lee Hill and Mia McCarthy spoke with roughly two dozen GOP lawmakers, and many told them the nomination race is wide open.
Rubio's backers think Vance can't escape President Donald Trump's unpopularity, which they blame for last week's midterm losses. Being Trump's vice president chains him to an agenda that even Republican lawmakers say voters rejected.
"I hope he runs," Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) told Politico. "I think he's the best person to communicate, to unify."
Asked why he prefers Rubio to Vance, Stutzman said, "I think he's the most talented Republican by far.... We're going to have to continue to re-message, put some new faces up."
The anonymous voices sound even more eager.
One GOP senator said the election results "certainly make it harder for Vance." A House Republican offered, "I think Rubio is our best hope to lead Republicans out of this wilderness, and I hope he makes his break from Trump and JD early next year." A second senator admitted, "Some of us are still hoping we can draft Marco."
Rep. Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.), who has known Rubio for nearly 30 years, added, "No question he's ready to be president if he chooses to pursue the office."
Here's the thing, though: Rubio may not want the job.
Several lawmakers said people close to him have signaled he has no interest in a 2028 run. He told reporters Monday that he was "just not going to talk about 2028 anymore." A person close to Rubio said he's "fully focused on doing his many jobs and isn't thinking about 2028." The State Department declined to comment, and Vance's office stayed silent. I’m not sure I buy that, if we’re being completely honest here.
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It’s not like Rubio doesn’t carry baggage, though. He still strongly defends the Iran war that he's tied to as the nation's top diplomat. Meanwhile, Vance has his defenders. "If JD runs, he has my full support," Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) said. "He continues to lead in all the polls on the Republican side to be the nominee.... I hope he runs. But I don't know if he's running or not."
Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) called Vance "a friend" and added, "He's the vice president, of course he's a front-runner." Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) pinned the losses on the "party" and argued its "policies" weren't to blame. Vance even joked about criticism of "the leader of the team" and doubts about "whether the No. 2 has what it takes" before deadpanning, "I'm talking, of course, about the Ohio State Buckeyes."
That said, plenty of Trump's top allies won't call Vance the presumptive nominee. "Can I skip this one?" one House GOP hardliner asked. "Not wading into 2028 yet." Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.), a senator-elect and the first member of Congress to back Trump in 2016, said Vance would "have a shot," but stopped short of an endorsement. "We got a great bench. Whoever steps up, we'll be happy to support," Moore said.
Other hopefuls smell opportunity.
Several Hill Republicans expect outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run; Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) won't rule it out, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) looks likely to jump in. Asked whether he favored Vance, Rubio, or DeSantis, Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), the incoming senator, smiled and answered, "Everybody."
At the end of the day, I’m not looking forward to the 2028 primaries. In 2008 and 2016, Republicans spent months arguing over who would be the next Reagan. This time, the fight will be over who gets to be the next Trump, and I expect that to be far more divisive. My biggest worry is that GOP voters won't unify behind whoever comes out on top. A movement built around one man faces its hardest test when he steps aside, and if Republicans spend the next two years tearing each other apart over his legacy, they'll hand the Democrat Party the White House.
