Texas has long been the Democrats’ white whale. They dumped a fortune into Beto O’Rourke and Colin Allred, and yet Ted Cruz is still a member of the Senate. Back in 2020, some on the left believed that Joe Biden might be able to win it. In 2024, they were saying to anyone who would listen that Kamala Harris had a chance there as well. Whenever there’s an election cycle, the same kind of headline appears: this is the year. We’ve heard that story before, and it has always ended the same way.
This time the great hope is Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D-50th District), and several recent polls show him ahead in his Senate race, enough to rattle some Republicans. But before anyone declares Texas is gonna flip, it's worth asking a simple question: does anyone seriously think James Talarico is the guy who finally pulls this off?
The last Democrat to win a Texas Senate race was Lloyd Bentsen, in 1988. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Donald Trump carried the state by 14 points in 2024. It is exceedingly rare for a state that hands a president a double-digit win to flip to the opposing party's non-incumbent candidate two years later.
Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, has already won statewide office in Texas. Do I think a moderate Democrat could conceivably beat him under the right conditions? It’s not out of the realm of possibility. There have been signs that Texas was trending purple, but after Trump won Texas by 14 points, I just don’t see that happening. And even if it were possible, Talarico is not that Democrat. To win statewide, he needs voters who backed Trump to cross over to him, and it's fair to ask what, exactly, is supposed to make that happen.
ICYMI*: *Ken Paxton Absolutely Schooled James Talarico, and It Was Brutal
His positions on religion, transgenderism, and women's sports sit far outside the mainstream in a Republican-leaning state. Heck, I would argue that they’re too radical for the voters of a blue state.
And make no mistake about it, we know his record. Talarico has said "God is non-binary" and claimed there are "six genders.” His professed love of "trans" children is extremely creepy, and now, newly resurfaced remarks add yet another troubling piece to the puzzle that is James Talarico.
Back in 2019, Talarico argued during a Texas Legislature committee hearing that parents denying their child’s gender identity was essentially child abuse.
"I think there are some folks that would think that if you deny your child's gender identity, that's incredibly harmful," he said. "And whether or not we label it with the term abuse, it's abusive for sure."
His remarks came during debate over HB 1910, a bill that would have barred courts from treating a parent's refusal to affirm a child's gender identity as evidence of unfitness in custody disputes. The bill's text stated that courts "may not consider evidence regarding whether the party demonstrates a history or pattern of acknowledging or declining to acknowledge the child's gender identity or expression" when deciding custody. Talarico opposed it, arguing that ruling out any link to abuse "is dangerous and could certainly harm some of our most vulnerable kids in the state."
He went further. "Some of us, I think, really do consider this abusive behavior… an unwillingness to identify, acknowledge a child's gender identity," Talarico said. "We consider that abusive to the child, abusive and destructive."
This is not an abstract concept Talarico is pushing, either. In Massachusetts, a family is fighting to regain custody of their teenage daughter and stop the state from medically transitioning her with high-dose testosterone. Sophie was 15 when the Massachusetts Department of Children and Families removed her from her parents' home in December 2024. A counselor at her school reportedly socially transitioned her to a male identity without their knowledge or consent.
Do you think a majority of Texas voters would condone that by voting for Talarico?
Heck, Talarico doesn’t even believe it. He is now working overtime to convince voters his well-documented fascination with trans ideology doesn't reflect who he really is today. If you wanted a sign that his internal polling numbers aren't as rosy as the public polls suggest, there it is.
I’m not trying to be that guy who argues every poll that he doesn’t like is fake, but when a poll showed Kamala Harris a mere five points behind Trump in 2024, I knew better than to believe it.
