Every couple of years, some data-driven oracle tells conservatives to brace for the impossible, and this cycle it's Texas. This year will finally be “the year” that Democrats succeed in flipping Texas! We’ve heard this story before, where Democrats and the media were convinced that the circumstances were perfect for a flip. So, they threw all kinds of money at Beto O’Rourke and Colin Allred, only to get crushed on Election Day. Hey, I’m all for Democrats wasting money on fever-dream races, but now Nate Silver’s model suggests that state Rep. James Talarico (D-Texas) has a shot at winning the Senate in November.
So is he right?
Talarico is challenging Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-Texas) for the Senate seat, with Democrats hoping a win helps flip the Senate in 2026. Nate Silver's FLIPR model now rates the race as "leans Democratic" or a toss-up, a striking shift for deep-red Texas. Talarico had raised almost $69 million as of the FEC's June 2026 deadline, even as his own ads claim he's falling short of his fundraising goals. RealClearPolling had him up 1.7% over Paxton.
Silver used to be the golden boy of political forecasting, so when his model moves, people notice. But call me skeptical.
Why? His recent record is spotty.
In 2016, his model gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and predicted she'd carry Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. She lost all five. Things haven’t exactly gotten much better for him over the years. His battleground error ran about four points in 2020. In 2024, his model gave Kamala Harris a slight edge, and he called the race a coin flip. Kamala went on to lose every swing state.
None of that screams reliable.
There are factors at play here as well. As we previously reported, pollster Patrick Ruffini researched polling patterns and found that Senate polling in red states has overstated Democratic support every summer for the last four cycles. So, if you assume the pattern holds in 2026, Silver’s model is based on data that likely inflates Talarico’s support.
Texas polling has been unreliable in Texas before. In 2024, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) beat Democrat Colin Allred by nine points, double the RCP average's margin. Talarico is no moderate.
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I’m no polling expert, so what really makes me question Talarico’s ability to pull off a victory in Texas isn’t so much what the polls say, don’t say, or how off they may be, but rather just understanding what kind of state Texas is and what kind of candidate Talarico is.
The last Democrat to win a Texas Senate race was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. Donald Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024, and it's exceedingly rare for a president who carries a state by double digits to see it flip to a non-incumbent from the other party two years later; from what I’ve been able to find, it’s happened only three times since the 1990s, and typically involves moderate candidates with crossover appeal.
Where is Talarico’s crossover appeal? His positions on religion, transgenderism, and women's sports are far out of step with mainstream Texas voters, a factor that should hurt him as the race heats up.
So no, this isn't the moment for Republicans to panic. Silver's model may be flashing signs of concern, but I wouldn’t take it as gospel. Every summer brings a mirage like this one, and every fall it evaporates.
