Eric Swalwell’s exit from the California governor’s race is raising new questions about how the contest will be reshaped. For months, Swalwell had been the top Democrat in the field. Still, the open-primary dynamic has consistently favored the two Republican candidates, who have led most polls, while Democrats split the remaining vote. Now, with Swalwell out, the big question is where the race stands—and whether Democrats can consolidate support or continue to fragment in a way that benefits the GOP.
The short answer: not much has changed. And that might be the most interesting thing about this race.
A new Emerson College/California ICP poll released Thursday shows that Trump-endorsed Steve Hilton still leads the field at 17%, with Republican Chad Bianco right behind him at 14%. That's 31% combined for the GOP.
Not bad, right?
Well, let’s keep looking at the numbers.
“In the first Emerson poll since Eric Swalwell’s departure from the race for Governor, Democrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%), with Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explained.
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In a sense, not much has changed. You have a lot of Democrats fracturing the Democratic vote. California uses a top-two primary system, which means the two candidates with the most votes — regardless of party — advance to the November general election. Right now, based on those numbers, both of those candidates would be Republicans.
This is pretty much where the race was before Swalwell dropped out. And it kind of makes it seem that two Republicans could advance to the general election.
There are two problems, though. First, there’s still time for Democrat support to consolidate among the top-tier Democrats. The second is that nearly a quarter of California voters (23%) are undecided.
🚨New @CaliforniaICP/@EmersonPolling on the CA gov race post Swalwell exit and Trump endorsement:
— Nikki Laurenzo (@NikkiLaurenzo) April 16, 2026
🔴Steve Hilton 17%
🔴Chad Bianco 14%
🔵Tom Steyer 14%
🔵Xavier Becerra 10%
🔵Katie Porter 10%
🔵Matt Mahan 5%
🔵Antonio Villaraigosa 3%
🔵Betty Yee 1%
🔵Tony Thurmond 1%
Undecided… pic.twitter.com/gRH2xdm23J
That's a massive block of potential movement, and it doesn't have to break evenly to upend the current standings. If even a portion of those voters coalesces behind Steyer, Becerra, or Porter, the picture shifts. It’s safe to say that the Republican candidates have less to gain from the share of the undecided voters than the Democrats do.
The prediction markets certainly don’t see much of a path to victory for the GOP either. Polymarket currently gives Tom Steyer a 62% chance of winning the election. Hilton sits at 5%. Bianco is at 3%.
Here's the thing, though. The fact that we're even having this conversation — that two Republicans are leading polls in California for governor — is itself a story. The Democratic bench is weak; their frontrunners are polling in the low double digits; their most prominent dropout left under a cloud rather than a standing ovation; and so many are still undecided.
Is there a real chance here for the GOP? I can’t discount the possibility. There most certainly is a chance, but it’s a narrow one.
A very narrow one.
