Could Republicans actually take the California governor's mansion? A fresh poll out of Berkeley surely has Democrats sweating the possibility. I haven’t been to California in quite a few years, and frankly, the state has given me plenty of reasons to avoid it, but the idea that it could have a Republican governor again seems kinda cool. But it is realistic.
On paper, yes. Democrats have a large, fractured field in a jungle primary, with some establishment candidates and a billionaire with nothing to lose, among a few others. While there are just two Republicans, who, more often than not, lead in the polls. If the Republicans get the most votes in the primary, they would advance to the general election.
A brand-new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll shows two Republicans leading California's crowded 2026 gubernatorial primary. Conservative commentator Steve Hilton leads with 17% support among likely voters, followed closely Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 16%. Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter are each pulling 13% — trailing both Republicans. Billionaire Tom Steyer spent roughly $50 million on television ads since December and managed to reach just 10%. Former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra sits at 5%, and former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa clocks in at 4%. That's a lot of well-known Democratic names dividing a very blue electorate into very small pieces.
🚨NEW POLL ALERT! From Berkeley IGS👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/VZfPrwQx27
— Steve Hilton (@SteveHiltonx) March 18, 2026
This would be an exciting proposition for more than just the gubernatorial election. Why? Because with the midterm elections in November, a gubernatorial race between two Republicans might depress Democrat turnout and give Republicans a better shot at some House seats butchered by Democrat gerrymandering.
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If Democrats stay fragmented, both Hilton and Bianco could make it through. Data expert Paul Mitchell's "Top Two Twins Primary Simulator" found that if Becerra stays in the race, the odds of two Republicans in the top two jump to 27.6%. Drop him out, and that number falls to just 8%.
The irony here is that Democrats likely created the jungle primary system in California to shut Republicans out; now it might lock them in.
But in all likelihood, the party won’t let that happen.
Earlier this month, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks urged weaker candidates to bow out of the race. Acknowledge the very real, albeit unlikely possibility. "The likelihood of two Republicans effectively 'locking out' California Democrats from the contest for Governor in the General Election is relatively low," he wrote in an open letter to the candidates. "However, while it is implausible, it is not impossible.” That's a stunning sentence for a party chair to put in writing about his own state — a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by millions.
Here's the honest truth, though: even if Republicans ran the table in June and one of them won in November, the practical impact would be limited. Democrats hold a supermajority in both the state Assembly and Senate. A Republican governor couldn't pass a grocery list without their cooperation.
So, it would be a symbolic win — but still an enormous one. Watching California's deep blue establishment lose the governor's office to a Fox News commentator of all people would send shockwaves through the Democratic Party far beyond the state's borders. And that panic alone might be worth the price of admission.
