Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the party in power, and they usually don’t go well for them. So, Democrats should be feeling pretty good right now. But there’s always a wild card, and it’s usually the economy. And if you’re a conservative, you actually have a lot of reasons to feel optimistic about the midterms, even if history says they won’t go well for the GOP.
The midterms will ultimately be decided by the economy and by whether people feel things are better under Trump than under Biden. That’s not exactly the highest bar, but the problem is that Democrats and the media are blaming Trump for the problems he inherited from Biden. The question is, will things improve enough that people feel the difference before November?
I think there’s a solid chance. As White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt explained on Wednesday, the administration is actually delivering on its promises, and if you don’t feel the benefits yet, you should soon enough.
"There are promising signs every day that 2026 is going to be a record successful year for the American people, just as President Trump promised them," Leavitt explained, and that wasn’t just spin.
The January jobs report came in and blew past the forecasts of the so-called experts. "The economy added 172,000 new private sector jobs to kick off the year," Leavitt said. "That's more than two and a half times economists' predictions. The labor force participation rate went up while the unemployment rate fell."
Oh yeah, and the prime-age labor force participation rate is now sitting at its highest level since 2001. When Leavitt said, “This is truly remarkable,” she had the numbers to back it up. There have been 615,000 private-sector jobs added since Trump returned to the White House, with 100% of that job creation occurring in the private sector.
"These are real working people, these are real American families who will be living out their American dream," she said.
Meanwhile, federal government employment has shrunk to its lowest level since 1966, saving taxpayers $29 billion annually.
Oh yeah, and all of the net job growth under Trump has gone to native-born Americans. "Ending the disgraceful pattern under Joe Biden of job gains going to non-citizens and illegal aliens," Leavitt added.
Then came the inflation numbers.
Despite endless doom-casting from economists who predicted tariffs would torch the economy, year-over-year inflation dropped to 2.4% in January — beating expectations and marking the lowest level since May. "Core inflation, the best measure of inflation, dropped to its lowest level in nearly five years," Leavitt said.
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Real wages are rising too. After just one year of Trump back in office, real earnings for private sector workers have outpaced inflation by nearly $1,400 — clawing back roughly half of the $2,900 in purchasing power Americans lost during Biden's inflationary disaster. "More money is going back directly into people's pockets," Leavitt said.
That never happened under Joe Biden.
Housing is also finally moving in the right direction. The annual mortgage cost for a new home has fallen $4,000 under Trump, after rising roughly $15,000 under Biden. Mortgage affordability has hit a four-year best. National median rents have fallen to a four-year low and declined for six consecutive months. "The annual rental cost for a new rental unit has fallen nearly $100 so far under President Trump, after rising more than $3,000 under Joe Biden," Leavitt noted, adding that many are crediting Trump's deportation efforts for freeing up housing stock.
Bazinga!
At the grocery store, egg, dairy, cheese, fresh fruit, potatoes, tomatoes, and butter prices have all come down since inauguration day. Gas is sitting below $3 a gallon nationally and approaching $2.70 in some states, with several states already under $2. So, chances are good that as long as you don’t live in California, you’re seeing much relief at the pump.
"What President Trump wants Americans to understand is that this is only the start, and the best is yet to come," Leavitt said. "The historic success that we have seen since he took office is just the beginning of enormous growth and opportunity that we are about to witness."
Democrats spent the past year telling voters that Trump’s tariffs would cause economic catastrophe, and the four years before that, insisting that Bidenomics was working fine. The facts disagree.
🚨BOOM! Karoline Leavitt just DROPPED the mic on the economy, 2026 is shaping up to be a MASSIVE Trump BOOM and the experts are STUNNED speechless!
— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) February 18, 2026
• Core inflation LOWEST in nearly 5 YEARS
• Mortgage costs DOWN $4,000 (after Dems jacked ’em +$15K)
• Real earnings BEAT… pic.twitter.com/kV5jnMhmOn
If this economic progress continues, then I think it will be impossible for the public to deny it, and the midterms will go well for the GOP.
