Washington is again staring down a potential government shutdown just days away, and this time the pressure point is the Senate filibuster. With Democrats vowing to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security, Republicans face a strategic question that once seemed unthinkable: Is it time for the GOP to nuke the filibuster?
The deadline arrives on January 31, and the warning signs are flashing.
Prediction market site Kalshi announced over the weekend that government shutdown odds surged from 10% to 75% in just a few days.
BREAKING: Government shutdown odds surge from 10% to 75% over the weekend pic.twitter.com/N1TukCMrx6
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) January 25, 2026
Polymarket shows a similar spike, with the probability of a shutdown skyrocketing over the same period.
BREAKING: U.S. Government projected to shutdown this week, amid growing tensions over ICE funding.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 26, 2026
80% chance.https://t.co/xEEdVQBF5Y
Democrats hardened their opposition to the DHS funding measure after Border Patrol agents shot and killed an armed agitator in Minnesota on Saturday. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer issued a statement calling the events “appalling and unacceptable in any American city.”
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He continued, “Democrats sought common sense reforms in the Department of Homeland Security spending bill, but because of Republicans’ refusal to stand up to President Trump, the DHS bill is woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE. I will vote no. Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.”
The Senate Democratic Caucus met Sunday evening and united behind blocking $64.4 billion in DHS funding unless specific conditions are attached. Those conditions include an independent investigation into ICE tactics, bans on face masks and roving patrols, mandatory body cameras, the elimination of administrative warrants that bypass judges, and the end of arrest quotas.
The House has already passed the DHS funding bill, but it needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster in the Senate. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning they cannot advance the measure without Democratic support.
Because of this, pressure is mounting on Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota to eliminate or modify the filibuster at least for appropriations bills. Senate Republican leaders have previously resisted eliminating the filibuster, despite President Trump’s urging them to do so during the October 2025 government shutdown. Thune said the filibuster makes "the Senate the Senate" and that the founders created it specifically to give the minority a voice.
However, it is widely expected that the next time Democrats control all three branches of the federal government, they will completely nuke the filibuster. Many Republicans, including President Trump, have suggested they should beat them to the punch.
The standoff leaves Republicans with three paths: accept Democratic restrictions on DHS, change Senate rules to pass funding with a simple majority, or allow a shutdown. I suspect the limits Democrats want will be a nonstarter with Republicans. There’s little reason to believe that any Democrats will cave this time.
Will Democrats leave Republicans with no choice?
