Have you ever noticed that when it comes to winning elections, Democrats spend a lot of time trying to act like they are something they are not? For years, we've heard that both parties move toward the middle to win voters. But did you ever see President Donald Trump hide his agenda? He promised the largest mass deportation effort in history, and he is following through on it.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris took a very different approach. They tried to run on border security even after years of open-borders policies, because polls showed voters were turning against them. Now Democrats are getting another clear warning to hide their most extreme positions before the midterms. The playbook looks very familiar, and Republicans would be foolish not to take advantage of it.
Third Way, a center-left think tank, released a memo telling Democrats to drop the "abolish ICE" slogan after the recent ICE shooting of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis. The memo warned Democrats against using extreme rhetoric in the aftermath of the shooting. "The impulse is emotional," the memo explains. "The slogan is simple. But politically, it is lethal. Every call to abolish ICE risks squandering one of the clearest opportunities in years to secure meaningful reform of immigration enforcement — while handing Republicans exactly the fight they want. This piece argues for a harder and smarter approach: abolish abuses, not ICE."
Last year, NBC News reported that some elected officials had resurrected “abolish ICE” into campaigns and talking points. Third Way implored the left to instead talk about ICE abuses and overreach but be clear that they still want secure borders and legal immigration.
They pointed to polling and focus groups that showed “a window, not a wave” for change, with potential voters saying they wanted deportations but were not happy with how they are being carried out and who is being targeted.
“Even among Democratic primary voters, Third Way’s own polling shows a clear preference for a balanced approach over abolition, 65% to 35%,” according to the memo.
Sound familiar? It should. This is essentially a replay of what happened with "defund the police" a few years back.
Back in April 2021, Democratic operatives warned party lawmakers to steer clear of any "defund the police" rhetoric ahead of the midterms. Celinda Lake, a pollster working for the Democratic National Committee, said that calls to defund police departments were hurting Democrats in tight races.
“The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also concluded in an election autopsy earlier this year that the issue ‘carried a punch,’” Politico reported in October 2021. “But the Democratic messaging is also a reaction to polling: Only 18 percent of Americans said they support the 'defund the police' movement, according to a March poll.”
Naturally, Republicans hammered Democrats with the “defund” message relentlessly, and it worked.
The pattern here is clear and easy to see. Democrats are often told to hide what they really believe until after the election is over. When issues like defunding the police or abolishing ICE come up, party consultants tell them to stay quiet while voters are paying attention. That should concern everyone. If a party has to cover up its real positions to win, that is more than a messaging problem. It becomes a problem for the whole country, because many voters end up being duped into thinking Democrats are more moderate than they actually are.
This warning also provides a clear roadmap for Republicans heading into the next midterms. Just as the GOP successfully turned “defund the police” into a liability for Democrats in past elections, tying today’s Democrats to “abolish ICE” rhetoric could prove just as potent this time around.
