A recent poll from The Argument/Verasight has social media buzzing after showing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez narrowly edging out Vice President JD Vance 51-49 in a hypothetical 2028 matchup. The numbers fall within the poll's margin of error, meaning the two are statistically tied. Well, according to this poll. Personally, I don’t take it too seriously, as I’m sure a few of you, if any, have even heard of the outfit that produced it. Frankly, nobody with any sense believes these results.
Which is probably why Ocasio-Cortez seems to believe it. When a reporter asked Ocasio-Cortez about the poll and her chances of beating Vance, she said, “You know, these polls three years out…they are what they are. But let the record show, I will stomp him.”
AOC says she would “Stomp him” when asked if she would win in a heads up race against JD Vance.
— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) December 18, 2025
Told you, she is dumb. https://t.co/2rVXCTUbF0 pic.twitter.com/yvhRsivMNU
She laughed, of course, and I am inclined to believe that not even she believes it. Anyone who's watched Vance knows he's smart and extremely articulate, basically the opposite of AOC. The idea that he'd be a weak candidate against her is absurd, yet some Democrats are treating this poll like gospel.
The truth is, Vance is emerging as a formidable 2028 presidential contender whose political appeal Democrats refuse to recognize. Former CNN pundit and now NewsNation political contributor Chris Cillizza said during a Thursday YouTube live stream that he views Vance as a strong possible 2028 candidate.
“I’m pretty bullish on JD Vance,” Cillizza said. “I think Democrats underestimate JD Vance at their own peril, which I think they’re doing.”
Cillizza told viewers he believes Donald Trump Jr. is the only Republican who could plausibly defeat Vance for the 2028 GOP nomination. He added that he doesn't expect Trump Jr. to run against Vance because the two men are friends.
An Emerson College poll published Thursday showed Vance with a 46% favorability rating, placing him ahead of several prominent Republicans and Democrats, including likely 2028 contenders. Reacting to the Emerson results on X, Cillizza said the numbers confirmed his broader belief that Democrats underestimate "Vance's appeal" heading into 2028. The same Emerson snapshot listed Vance at plus-5 net favorability, compared with figures like Elon Musk at negative-6, Mike Johnson at negative-3, Josh Shapiro at plus-6, Gavin Newsom at negative-11, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at negative-12, Zohran Mamdani at negative-16, and Marjorie Taylor Greene at minus-33
Numbers like this just confirm my broader belief that Democrats underestimate Vance's appeal in 2028 at their own peril https://t.co/CVHvy28nQp
— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) December 18, 2025
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has even ruled out a 2028 presidential run if Vance seeks the nomination, which he likely will. With Trump constitutionally barred from seeking another term, Vance will no doubt be seen as the natural successor to lead the MAGA movement. From where I sit, the biggest flaw in the poll from The Argument/Verasight is not that it underestimates JD Vance; it’s that it overestimates Ocasio-Cortez. If the Democratic Party base wants to gamble their 2028 nomination on Ocasio-Cortez, please, let them.
