It may seem early to start forecasting the 2026 midterms, but the warning signs for Democrats are already flashing red. Conventional wisdom says the party in power takes a beating in the midterms. That’s not guaranteed, and right now, Democrats ought to be panicking. Two glaring indicators have emerged that suggest Democrats are headed for disaster, and no amount of spin or wishful thinking can change the numbers.
CNN’s resident number-cruncher Harry Enten recently dropped a reality check that Democrats probably didn’t want aired on national television. Enten reviewed early indicators for the 2026 midterms, and the data isn’t looking good for the left.
According to Enten, Democrats are lagging far behind where they were at this point during previous cycles under Republican presidents. In 2005 and 2017 — both years leading up to major blue-wave elections — Democrats held a comfortable seven-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. Today? They’re barely ahead by two.
“The Democrats vs. Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, the margins, look at where we are now: Democrats are ahead, but by just two points," Enten said. "Look at where Democrats were already by 2017. They were [ahead] by seven points. 2005 on the congressional ballot, ahead by seven points. Now they’re only ahead by two points.”
He made it even more plain: the current Democrat edge is “less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005,” adding that while “Donald Trump may be unpopular, Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point.”
Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
But polling may be the least of their worries. The financial picture is also a brutal one for the left that should set off alarm bells inside Democratic war rooms from coast to coast.
The Republican National Committee just vaulted into the second half of 2025 with a whopping $65.56 million cash advantage over the Democrats. The RNC’s war chest, bolstered by over $80.7 million in reserves at the end of June, dwarfs the Democratic National Committee’s more modest $15.2 million.
Campaign cash isn’t the only metric that matters — just ask Kamala Harris — but it’s the metric that matters most in defining political momentum, message reach, and ground game muscle. This isn’t merely a reflection of GOP prosperity but a flashing red warning for Democrats still licking wounds from crushing losses in 2024.
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And the gulf is only getting wider. The RNC raked in over $96 million in total receipts during the first half of the year while the DNC scraped together just above $69 million. Such a dramatic disparity is not just an accounting footnote; it’s a measure of voter enthusiasm, donor confidence, and a resounding rejection of the Democratic message as it currently stands.
Republicans are riding a surge just as Democrats struggle to recover from their 2024 collapse, a year marked by scandal, failure, and a growing crisis of confidence. While the left scrambles for both narrative and cash, the GOP is gaining ground fast. Vice President JD Vance, now serving as RNC finance chair, pulled in a record-breaking $3 million at a single Nantucket fundraiser, an unprecedented haul for a GOP event on deep-blue turf. As one strategist put it, “Vance as RNC finance chair has been a difference maker already.”
This fundraising wave reflects a broader rejection of Democrat leadership — from Biden’s decline to open-border disasters and the left’s war on law enforcement. Donors are walking away from a party they no longer trust, and the numbers don’t lie. With the RNC now holding five times the cash of the DNC, what was once a midterm challenge is turning into a warning shot.
