Let's be honest: It's not exactly surprising that Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, is it? In hindsight, the outcome of this election was inevitable when you consider that the fundamentals always favored him. The right track/wrong track numbers favored the challenging party, the incumbent president's approval ratings were underwater, and voters overwhelmingly trusted Trump on the economy and immigration—the top issues of the election.
The polls might have painted this as a close race, but they clearly missed the mark. It was naive to believe that Joe Biden ever had a real shot, and the idea that Kamala Harris—the most unpopular vice president in history and a notoriously weak campaigner—could pull off a victory after only a few months of campaigning was always far-fetched. Her campaign was doomed from the start, and the fact that they raised (and spent) a billion dollars and couldn't win a single swing state tells you all that you need to know.
Yet, believe it or not, a sizable portion of the electorate was surprised by the outcome. After the race was called, YouGov conducted a poll of registered voters for The Economist. Among the questions asked of voters was if they were surprised by Trump's victory. The result was nearly split down the middle.
According to the poll, 52% were either “not very surprised” (27%) or “not at all surprised” (25%) by Trump's victory, while 25% were somewhat surprised, and only 22% of voters reported being “very surprised.”
Naturally, shock at the result was virtually mirrored depending on which candidate you supported.
According to the poll, 70% were either “not very surprised” (31%) or “not at all surprised” (39%) while 32% of Kamala voters were either “not very surprised” (23%) or “not at all surprised” (9%) by Trump's victory. I guess you can say that partisanship really influenced perceptions of the state of the race.
Economist/YouGov Poll, Nov. 6-7
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) November 8, 2024
Two-thirds of Kamala Harris voters were somewhat or very surprised by Donald Trump's winhttps://t.co/3t4kcgl3tI pic.twitter.com/m5PlukbVhk
The poll also found that most voters said their vote was in support of their chosen candidate rather than in opposition to the opponent, though more Trump supporters (84%) indicated positive support for Trump than Kamala voters (60%) saying the same thing. Among Trump supporters, 77% were enthusiastic about his win, while another 20% felt satisfied but less enthusiastic. On the other hand, 66% of Kamala voters reported being upset, with another 24% feeling dissatisfied yet not deeply upset.
A strong majority of voters—79%—believed the election results would have a significant impact on the country, with 40% expecting a personal impact as well. Nearly half of voters (47%) were somewhat surprised by the outcome, though this feeling was much more pronounced among Harris supporters (66%) than Trump supporters (29%).
In terms of vote expectations, 66% of voters said Trump outperformed their expectations, while 21% felt he won about as many votes as they anticipated. By contrast, 58% felt Harris received fewer votes than expected, with only 14% saying her performance aligned with their expectations. Harris supporters, in particular, were taken aback: 82% believed she underperformed, and 79% thought Trump did better than they had anticipated.
The poll also found that only 53% of Kamala voters accept Trump as the legitimately elected president. Boy, are we gonna talk more about that later.
If there's anything this poll tells us, it's that political preferences really do influence how people perceive elections.
But really, in retrospect, it was obvious that Trump was going to win, wasn't it?
