Donald Trump has won a second term, and it is glorious. It’s hard not to get excited about what’s to come. I’ll invoke Gerald Ford by saying that fairly soon, our long national nightmare will be over. But as we are still enjoying the euphoria of victory, we need to remember that winning the election was actually the hard part.
Trump now has a big job ahead of him. He may have won a decisive victory and expanded the Republican coalition, but now he has to succeed if that coalition will have any future. History suggests that will be difficult.
Second terms are notoriously challenging for American presidents, which is why the “second-term curse” is a thing. Richard Nixon faced the Watergate scandal, which eventually led to his resignation. Ronald Reagan became entangled in the Iran-Contra affair. Bill Clinton’s second term brought impeachment proceedings following the Monica Lewinsky scandal.
George W. Bush faced immense backlash after his Social Security reform efforts failed, along with the federal response to Hurricane Katrina and the financial crisis. Multiple scandals dogged Barack Obama, including the IRS targeting scandal, the Snowden leaks, the government shutdown of 2013, and the slow economic recovery.
Related: WaPo’s Brutal Election Postmortem Destroys the Democrats, and It's Glorious
Time after time, history shows that when presidents secure a second term, they often face an uphill battle with fewer political allies, growing opposition, turnover, and an electorate that may be quick to turn on their party in the next election.
The good thing for Trump is that his second term follows the disastrous presidency of Joe Biden and may not face the typical “second term curse.” And if he can, it will help build the Republican Party for years to come.
Though there will likely be some bumps along the way. The signs of a looming or ongoing recession have been there for months now, and you can expect that the economy may get worse before things get better and that Trump will be blamed for it.
But if Trump can achieve a successful second term, the GOP could be unstoppable for years to come with a large, multicultural coalition.
In a recent interview on "60 Minutes" Republican analyst Leslie Sanchez argued that Democrats have taken Latino voters for granted, assuming they would “naturally fall in line with the Democratic Party” as the community grew. She pointed out that with about 10% more Hispanic Americans joining the middle class in the last decade, economic concerns have become increasingly significant. “Small ripples in inflation really have a dramatic impact,” Sanchez noted, as many Latino families still live on the financial margins.
When asked if this shift could last beyond the current election, Sanchez responded, “Absolutely.”
"So the question becomes, if Trump can really meet those promises, bring inflation down, make things more affordable, and make these families feel more financially secure, he's going to have an ally [in Latinos] for probably several election cycles going forward," she said.
“If Trump can really meet those promises—bring inflation down, make things more affordable, and make these families feel more financially secure—he's going to have an ally for probably several election cycles going forward,” says Leslie Sanchez. https://t.co/AQjsfCDS21 pic.twitter.com/nQyxJLwmmm
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) November 11, 2024
The good news is that Trump appears to be learning from his mistakes from his first term and is assembling a solid team for his second administration.
