In 2000, the entire election hinged on Florida. Calling that election close would be the understatement of the century. This year, all eyes are on Pennsylvania, which is widely regarded as this year's tipping-point state.
And boy, are the polls close.
Overall, Donald Trump has been polling well in Pennsylvania, winning most of the recent polls, albeit by slim margins. As of today, he has a 0.3-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average in Pennsylvania.
Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) admitted in an interview with the New York Times last month that he was concerned that Trump would win Pennsylvania. He said he's observed the unwavering intensity of Trump supporters in his state. From sprawling Trump merchandise stores in deep-red counties to the long lines at Trump rallies, Fetterman described the loyalty as more than just support — it’s a full-blown movement that he “acknowledges exists.”
“There’s a difference between not understanding, but also acknowledging that it exists. And anybody spends time driving around, and you can see the intensity," he said. "It’s astonishing. I was doing an event in Indiana County — very, very red—and there was a superstore of Trump stuff, and it was a hundred feet long, and it was dozens of T-shirts and hats and bumper stickers and all kinds of, I mean, it’s like, Where does this all come from? It’s the kind of thing that has taken on its own life. And it’s like something very special exists there. And that doesn’t mean that I admire it. It’s just — it’s real.”
He also believes that Elon Musk’s endorsement of Trump has lent significant credibility to Trump’s appeal. Musk’s influence, Fetterman suggested, could resonate with everyday voters in blue-collar regions like Scranton. Musk’s status as a highly admired figure — “like Tony Stark” to many — adds weight to his support for Trump, a factor Fetterman said “is going to really matter.”
Fetterman’s concerns extend beyond Musk’s endorsement. He noted with dismay how Trump’s appeal has penetrated traditional Democratic strongholds in labor unions. He referenced the Teamsters’ refusal to endorse a Democrat this election and recalled a conversation with a steelworkers’ union president who reported that around 60% of his members backed Trump in 2016—a trend that continues in 2024, with union support steadily drifting away from Democratic candidates.
If Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania, her path to an electoral victory ends quickly. Assuming Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, she must win all three Great Lakes battleground states.
Of course, there is another race in Pennsylvania we have to watch: the Senate race. While incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. has consistently led in the polls there, his margin has tightened to within the margin of error, with some polls showing the race tied. It's reasonable to assume that if Trump pulls off a victory here, he can carry Republican David McCormick across the finish line.
For what it's worth, Casey has shown that he thinks Trump has the advantage in his state. Last month, he launched an ad that distanced himself from Biden and Harris while appealing directly to swing voters by aligning with Trump on key issues. Casey seems to recognize Trump’s rising influence in the state and understands that securing his reelection may depend on appealing to Trump’s base.
So what's going to happen? We'll be keeping a close watch for you here at PJ Media.
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