It would be great if Donald Trump won the election. But I don't just want him to win by a hair. I don't want him to just win the Electoral College. I want him to win the popular vote and to have an Electoral College landslide.
As I previously reported, Trump may have a shot at winning the popular vote, as he's erased Kamala Harris's lead in the national polling average at RealClearPolitics. The way the Electoral College generally favors Republicans at the moment means that a close national popular vote or one where Trump is ahead, even marginally, would translate to a significant victory in the Electoral College.
Which blue states might be in play that Trump could flip? Mark Halperin joined Megyn Kelly, along with his 2WAY co-hosts Sean Spicer and Dan Turrentine, and answered that very question.
"When Kamala Harris a few weeks ago did an event in New Hampshire, I said to everybody in both parties, like, what's going on?" he began. "Because she's spending a day campaigning in New Hampshire. They said, oh, no, she's got a fundraiser in Boston. She's given a national speech. It's got nothing to do with being bordered by New Hampshire. In fact, the private data in New Hampshire shows her with a pretty substantial lead. Joe Biden back in New Hampshire yesterday."
Recommended: CNN Analyst: Trump Could Capture His ‘Great White Whale’ in 2024
"There's a school of thought," he continued. "I'm not predicting Trump will win a landslide. I'm not rooting for Trump winning a landslide. But there's a school of thought that says, Trump's going to go to Albuquerque to try to win New Mexico. He's going to go to St. Paul to try to win Minnesota. He's going to go to, I don't know, Richmond to try to win Virginia. And then he's going to go to New Hampshire. And I was told yesterday, as someone showed me, an email saying that the Trump campaign is doing last minute hiring, paying a pretty robust sum for folks to do doorknocking at the last minute."
"So watch that dynamic," Halperin said. "Let's see. It could be a mistake. But again, Joe Biden went there."
The Trump campaign is now targeting New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia, and New Mexico. Could these efforts be a fool's errand? Maybe. Public polling out of New Mexico has shown the race as close as four points to as far as ten points with Kamala leading. Minnesota doesn't look any better. Nor does Virginia or New Hampshire, based on the polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight.
But then you have to ask yourself why Kamala went to New Hampshire and why Joe Biden was back there this week.
Remember, Kamala has outraised Trump in this cycle, so it stands to reason that the Trump campaign wouldn't waste resources on states he can't win. Could it be part of a strategy to boost turnout and deliver him a national popular vote win on top of a victory in the Electoral College? Maybe. But they still wouldn't be doing that unless they are confident that they have the Electoral College victory in the bag.
Are they confident that is the case? I'm sure they're feeling pretty good about their chances, but enough to invest resources in New Hampshire and to hold rallies in blue states that haven't voted red in decades when there isn't a large amount of public polling to suggest they're in play?
I hope the Trump campaign knows what it's doing.
