I can’t wait for this election to be over. We’re nearly two weeks away from Election Day, and it’s a rollercoaster ride from excitement and confidence to concern that things aren’t as good as they seem. It’s fair to say I’m cautiously optimistic. And believe me, there are plenty of reasons to feel optimistic.
When we look back at the RealClearPolitics polling averages from October 19 for the last three cycles — 2024, 2020, and 2016 — the situation absolutely looks bleak for Kamala Harris.
Unlike Joe Biden’s and Hillary Clinton’s comfortable leads in 2020 and 2016, Harris is either trailing or barely holding on in key battlegrounds.
Nationally, Harris holds a slim lead of just 1.4 points, a stark contrast to Biden’s 8.9-point advantage at this stage in 2020. And when you zoom in on battleground states, things look even worse for her. In Wisconsin, for instance, Harris is effectively tied at -0.1 points, while Biden led by 6.2 and Clinton by 6.5 at the same point. Pennsylvania tells a similar story; Harris is down 0.5 points, compared to Biden’s 3.8-point lead. In Arizona, Harris trails by 1.4 points, while Biden and Clinton both had slight leads at this stage.
17 days until Election Day! Here’s how the 2024 presidential race looks compared to the same date during the 2020 and 2016 elections, according to the RCP poll averages. pic.twitter.com/WJxbqq3Ugd
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) October 19, 2024
It's hard not to look at this chart and think that Trump has this election in the bag. Harris is struggling compared to Biden and Clinton. But when you consider how much the polls were off in those cycles, Trump could be headed for a tremendous, decisive victory.
Should we assume that the polls will be off in 2024 like they were in 2020 and 2016? I'd love to, but I can't.
There’s always a chance that the polls are spot-on, which is good for Trump if he has a solid ground game. The media claims that he does not. I’m honestly not sure what to believe, and that’s concerning.
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There is also the possibility that the polls could be wrong — but not in the way Republicans are hoping for. Pollsters got it wrong in 2020 and 2016, with Trump overperforming the polls significantly, but when they got them wrong in 2022, it was the other way around. Many predicted a Republican “red wave” that never came. Instead, Republicans barely secured a slim House majority. If the polls are off in 2024 the same way they were off in 2022, that’s a problem for Trump.
The key argument against the idea that 2024 will be like 2022 is that Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2022. It's a fair observation for sure. Everyone loves to spin poll results, and liberals on social media are looking at the polls today and saying two things: that a bunch of GOP polls are swinging the polling averages and that there will be a hidden liberal vote based on the abortion issue.
I can't tell you that I know which way it will be. The only thing I can say is that polling isn't an exact science, and while there are plenty of reasons I feel really good about Trump's chances, the possibility of a hidden pro-abortion vote does concern me. In the end, 2024 could bring another polling upset or a continuation of the misses from the last two cycles. Either way, don’t take this election for granted. Trump needs every vote, and you need to help him get as many as possible.
