You’ve probably noticed that Kamala Harris has abandoned her original campaign strategy of “joy” and “vibes” and replaced it with fear, anger, and attacks on Trump. She’s been attacking Trump forever, but there’s something markedly different about her tone in the past few days.
Obviously, a big part of the reason is that her efforts to sell her agenda to the public aren’t working. But it goes deeper than that. At the core of this strategy shift is the undeniable reality that Trump is more popular today than he ever has been before, and she’s trying to do something about that.
As CNN’s Harry Enten pointed out Friday morning, “If you believe that Donald Trump has somehow become less popular over time, let me change your mind about that.” He explains that Trump “is more popular at this point in the campaign than he was at this point in the 2020 campaign or the 2016 campaign.”
That’s a concerning reality for Kamala and her team. Despite Trump being underwater with a negative nine-point favorability rating, Enten reminds us, “That is higher than he was in 2020 at minus 12 points when he nearly won.”
That’s an understatement. The election hinged on less than 50,000 votes across three battleground states. Had it not been for the Democrats’ mail-in vote strategy, Trump likely would have won. Democrats can’t rely on the mail-in vote so much this year because there is no pandemic.
Even more alarming for Harris is the fact that in 2016, Trump was at a dismal minus-27 points — yet he managed to secure the presidency. This explains the shift in tone from the Harris-Walz campaign. According to Enten, “I think there’s this real question in Kamala Harris’s mind, in the campaign’s mind: Why is Trump more popular now than he was at this point in 2020 and 2016?”
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The answer to that question likely drives her more aggressive tactics this week. Harris and her team want to reverse Trump’s upward trend. As Enten notes, “They wanna make Trump more unpopular than he is right now because he’s more popular now than either point 2020 or 2016.” Essentially, the Harris campaign knows that if it doesn’t act now, Trump’s improved favorability will likely put him back into the White House.
While Harris remains more popular than Trump at the moment, her momentum has stalled. Enten breaks down the numbers: “She was at minus-15 points back in July 17th, then minus-4 points on August 17th, then one point on September… She was actually in positive territory a month ago, but she has fallen back down to minus-1.”
The Harris campaign is likely feeling the pressure from this trend, as her favorability rating is moving in the wrong direction now that she’s been going out there doing more interviews. She could try stopping the interviews, but she’s been trying to claim that it is Trump who is ducking interviews, not her, which would make such an attempt risky.
Being more popular than Trump is not enough. “Look, Joe Biden was more popular than Trump — much more — and barely won,” Enten observed. “And Hillary Clinton was more popular than Donald Trump and lost.”
One particular focus from Kamala has been Trump’s age and fitness to serve as president. According to Enten, this is a “great line of attack” for Harris. He points to polling data: “Back when Joe Biden was presumptive Democratic nominee in July… 50% said that Trump had the better physical and mental health.” But now the numbers favor Harris, with voters believing she is in better shape to serve.
“Kamala Harris way ahead on this metric of 54% to Donald Trump’s 34%,” Enten says. This gives Harris an opening to continue hammering Trump on his age and fitness, knowing that a majority of voters already see her as the healthier candidate.
Why is Harris on the attack? Trump's more popular at this point in this campaign than at this point in either his 2016 or 2020 bids.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 18, 2024
Harris's popularity rise, on the other hand, has crested, and she's fallen back (barely) into net negative favorability territory. pic.twitter.com/2hddgwc8Zq
Enten expects the Harris-Walz campaign to double down on these attacks as Election Day approaches. But the problem with this strategy is that Biden’s cognitive decline was obvious. Trump may be older than Joe Biden was in 2020, but Trump’s cognitive health isn’t in question. Democrats are trying to make it an issue, but it’s not working.
As polls have shown already, the public has already made up its mind about Trump. It’s Kamala people want to hear more about. With that in mind, this strategy is likely to fail like the others and prove to be a waste of time.
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