With just weeks left in the 2024 election, it’s easy to see why some Trump supporters are feeling optimistic. As we’ve been writing about here at PJ Media, polls show Donald Trump gaining ground in key battleground states, and there are signs that Democrats and the Harris-Walz campaign are panicking. After years of relentless attacks from the media and the political establishment, Trump is in as good a position to win as ever before.
Think about it. States like Virginia and Minnesota have seen swings in his favor. New York, which may not be in play, still shows a much closer race than it should. But let's forget about the states that won't decide this election and focus on the battlegrounds. When you look at the historical polling averages of the 2024, 2020, and 2016 campaigns, there’s no doubt that Trump is doing better today than he was before. Perhaps nothing makes that more obvious than this chart:
This is why the Harris-Walz campaign is panicking right now. pic.twitter.com/BpVFElQKnz
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) October 11, 2024
I look at this chart and feel pretty darn good.
But if there’s one thing we should have learned from the 2020 election—and even 2016—it’s that overconfidence can be dangerous. Trump might have the momentum right now, but we can’t afford to assume the polls are wrong or that his surge is guaranteed to carry him over the finish line. Just because the winds are blowing in his favor doesn’t mean we should get comfortable.
First, polling can be unpredictable, especially when it comes to Trump. While there’s no question that Trump tends to outperform in polls with certain demographics—namely working-class voters—there’s no guarantee this will happen again in 2024. Perhaps pollsters have figured out how to accurately capture Trump’s support. Perhaps the errors of the past have resulted in their overestimating Trump’s support. We don’t know, and because of that, we can’t afford to assume that his advantage in the polls right now is going to translate to a victory.
In 2020, Trump supporters convinced themselves that Trump’s strong turnout at rallies and the enthusiasm gap with Biden would lead to another upset, as in 2016. But while he did outperform in many polls, the Democrats' mail-in voting strategy ultimately resulted in Biden narrowly winning by a razor-thin margin. In fact, it was so close that his victory hinged on fewer than 50,000 cumulative votes across three battleground states
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Even in states where Trump is surging, we’re talking about razor-thin margins. So, if the polls are accurate and do not undercount Trump’s support, the outcome will depend on the campaigns’ ground games.
And I never underestimate the Democrats’ Election Day ground games.
And then there's the fact that, as PJM's Rick Moran noted, Democrats claim they have a "hidden vote" this year because of their financial and ground game advantages.
Do they? Perhaps the answer is irrelevant because we should assume that they do.
At the end of the day, we can’t just assume that Trump will outperform in the polls and win based on his momentum. We have to fight like he’s still the underdog because, in many ways, he is. The enthusiasm is real, the crowds are massive, and the momentum is there—but none of that guarantees victory.
It’s time to double down, get to the polls, get other people to the polls, vote early if you have to (in person, not by mail), and take nothing for granted. Trump’s path to victory is within reach, but assuming he’s already crossed the finish line could be what stops him from getting there.
