After weeks of avoiding interviews, the Harris-Walz campaign realized that voters weren't happy with how little they knew about Kamala's agenda. So naturally, the campaign set up a few select interviews on friendly territory, stacking the deck heavily in Kamala's favor and putting her out there. The problem is that it's not working, and even CNN can’t ignore how dire her situation is with key voting blocs.
While it’s easy to portray her as an abysmal candidate who ascended to the top of the ticket by bypassing the usual process, I suspect that the deeper issue is the Democratic Party’s increasing disconnect from working-class voters — voters it once depended on. Kamala's failure to win the endorsement of the Teamsters Union was a crushing blow, especially since rank-and-file members support Donald Trump by a margin of two to one. CNN's Harry Enten showed just how bad Kamala's problem with working-class voters has gotten.
“Sometimes there are data points that just jump off the screen and should set off sirens,” Enten noted, before pointing to the Democratic margin among union households, which he indicated is not what it used to be. “Back in 1992, Bill Clinton won that union vote by 30 points. Hillary Clinton only won it by 12 points in 2016, marking the lowest for a Democrat since Walter Mondale faced Ronald Reagan in 1984.”
Enten then turned his focus to Harris’s current standing, saying, “She is only leading by nine points. That would be the worst Democratic performance in a generation.” He emphasized that this figure is ten points off Joe Biden's 19-point margin from four years ago, calling it a “disturbing trend” — disturbing for Democrats, anyway.
Enten then explored the connection between trade schools and working-class voters, explaining, “A lot of people often conflate the union vote with those who use their hands.” He cited Mike Rowe’s advocacy for vocational education as a sign of the changing landscape.
He pointed out that in pre-election polling, “Bill Clinton was leading that vote over George H.W. Bush by seven points, while Donald Trump has a staggering 31-point advantage over Kamala Harris today.”
The shift in support among working-class voters is significant. “And we know that Donald Trump has been going after that vote, and he is in a very, very strong position—more so perhaps than with any other bloc. The folks who go to trade school, vocations—that has moved from being a core Democratic group to now being a core group of Donald Trump’s massive amount of support among the working class,” Enten observed.
He also noted a similar trend among minority voters: “Four years ago, Joe Biden won that group by 45 points, but Harris’s support has dipped down to just a 28-point lead.”
He added that Trump has made substantial gains among non-college graduates, particularly among voters of color: “The reason Donald Trump is doing so well is because he has really gained ground with voters who didn’t previously support him, especially those who didn’t graduate college.”
Trump has more working class support than any GOP presidential candidate in a generation. He's on track for the best performance among union voters in 40 years. He's up 31 points among trade school grads.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 30, 2024
He's doing 17 pts better among nonwhite non-college voters than in 2020. pic.twitter.com/0ObrWWNzYf
Enten analyzed the numbers and couldn't ignore the reality. Republicans, particularly Trump, are gaining substantial support from the working-class voters that Democrats claim to represent, including union members and trade school graduates. Democrats are losing traction with these groups as they increasingly cater to the wealthy elites who own the party.
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