We talk a lot about polls, projections, betting markets, and pretty much anything that we think and hope can give us some insight into how this year’s election will turn out. And while we wax philosophical about what the numbers mean for the outcome, there’s one thing that so many seem to miss about this year’s polling: Kamala Harris’s numbers are really, really bad.
CNN analyst Ryan Girdusky pointed this out during a panel discussion last week after the debate.
“She is the worst polling Democrat against Donald Trump in history on national polls,” he said. “No one is performing worse than her. No one's performing worse than her among blacks, among Hispanics, the worst performing Democrat in modern history among those demographics, worst performing polling-wise among Jews.”
He continued, “She is losing key factions of the Democratic base. Muslim voters, she's at under -- she's at 52% in the latest CARE poll among black Muslims. She is not doing well.”
Ryan Girdusky "Kamala Harris is the worst polling Democrat against Donald Trump in history in national polls". pic.twitter.com/HOOKvRZSRO
— D. Scott @eclipsethis2003 (@eclipsethis2003) September 14, 2024
Of course, one of the big problems facing Kamala is her flip-flopping on key issues. Panelist Van Jones argued that Kamala, despite having spent years opposing fracking, won’t do anything to end it.
“Okay, but at 60 years old, which is about what she is, she had a transformational life experience, apparently, where in 1,000 days, she has changed from a Bernie Sanders Democrat to a pro-choice Bush Democrat,” Girdusky retorted. “She has abandoned almost every position, not just on fracking, on reparations for the slaves. She was gung ho for a multi-trillion dollar policy, never mentions that she's completely against it, obviously, the transgender illegal aliens in prison, which she did sit there and say that she was for. She was against ICE. She was for open borders, defund the police.”
Related: Kamala Should Panic as Another Poll Shows a Blue State Statistically Tied
The proof is in the pudding, and Kamala Harris’s campaign is facing troubling polling numbers that it cannot ignore. Her once-comfortable lead in Minnesota is now razor-thin, and Michigan is far from secure. Even Virginia, a state we expected to lean her way, has turned into a nail-biter, with multiple polls indicating a contest within the margin of error. If Harris is struggling in Virginia, Michigan, and Minnesota — states that should favor her — it's likely that Trump is outperforming expectations in other battlegrounds as well.
Girdusky's observations only underscore this reality. If traditionally blue states are in play, then there is something fundamentally weak about Kamala. As CNN's Harry Enten recently noted, if the polls are off as much in 2024 as they were in 2020, the current polls showing Harris ahead would translate to a 312 Electoral College vote victory for Donald Trump with him sweeping both the Sun Belt and Great Lakes battlegrounds.
CNN Senior Data Reporter shows a map of what the electoral college would look like if the polls were off to the same degree they were in 2020.
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) September 20, 2024
The result: 312 electoral votes for Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/oVBLfpfqc1
Recommended: Do Election Forecasters Think We're Stupid?
