Election ‘Nostradamus’ Predicts Kamala Victory, but There’s a HUGE Problem

The leftists in the mainstream media are soiling themselves over historian Allan Lichtman's updated election prediction model, the “Keys to the White House,” which has accurately predicted the results of every election since 1984.

On Thursday, he revealed that his model predicts that Kamala Harris will win the election.

“The Democrats will hold on to the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said an op-ed video for The New York Times. “At least, that’s my prediction for this race.”

The unique system, which he developed in the early 1980s with the Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, analyzes the political landscape through the lens of 13 true-false statements focused on the incumbent president’s party.

If six or more of the statements are false, then the challenger — Trump — is predicted to win.

Here are the keys and Lichtman's rating for each:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE
3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
4. Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
10. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
11. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE
12. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
13. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

According to Lichtman, the final two keys to predicting the election outcome are uncertain due to the complexity of foreign policy. Despite the potential for these foreign policy keys to flip, Lichtman noted that even if both turned negative, there would still be only five negative keys in total — insufficient for Donald Trump to secure the presidency. 

Earlier this year, Lichtman’s model predicted that Joe Biden would win reelection, too. We all know how that turned out. But even more damning for Lichtman is the fact that he predicted that the Trump-Biden debate would have no impact on the election.

“Debates are not predictive of outcomes. Hillary Clinton won all three debates, still lost. John Kerry won all of the debates, still lost. Barack Obama got trounced, 72%-20% in the poll, worse than Biden, and went on to win,” he said back in June.

“That’s why we rely on the thirteen keys, which tap into the structure of how elections really work,” he continued, referring to his election prediction model. “And they show that Democrats’ really only chance to win, contrary to everything I’ve heard, is with Biden running.”

How much do you want to trust his assessment of the keys now?

Lichtman's model may be a solid prediction model, but the problem is that many of the keys are subjective. Frankly, his assessment is garbage. 

For instance, he rates the economic conditions as favorable for Harris despite historic inflation and widespread perceptions that the economy is in a recession. There's a reason why Trump's approval ratings on the economy are significantly higher than Biden's and Kamala's. Similarly, Lichtman's rating on scandals overlooks significant controversies tied to Harris, such as the Afghanistan withdrawal and the border crisis. 

Lichtman’s failure to give ratings for foreign/military failures and successes is quite ignorant as well. It's safe to say that the botched Afghanistan withdrawal and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war are two key foreign/military failures. I would also say that the war in Ukraine has yet to be a success for the Biden-Harris administration. Switching keys 5, 9, 12, and 13 to false changes the model's prediction to a Trump victory.

I don't care how accurate Lichtman's model has been in the past. His assessments of keys 5 and 9 are ridiculous, and his inability to make definitive assessments on 12 and 13 is also telling.