As the 2024 election heats up, Donald Trump's supporters must remain vigilant and avoid common pitfalls that could undermine their efforts to win this election and repair the damage that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have done. Overconfidence can lead to complacency, but here are five mistakes that Trump supporters can’t afford to make this year.
1. Dismissing polls that show Harris ahead
I get it. It's tempting to dismiss polls that show unfavorable results as flawed or biased. However, dismissing polls outright can lead to complacency. In 2020, polls consistently showed Biden ahead, and many Trump supporters convinced themselves that they were simply wrong.
And that election was decided by less than 50,000 votes across three states.
While some polls may indeed be flawed, others might provide valuable insights into voter sentiment and trends. I believe it’s important not to reject them out of hand but rather to critically assess the methodology and sample size of polls and to consider a range of data sources. Doing so helps us understand the broader landscape and adjust strategies accordingly.
2. Assuming that polls will be off this year like in past years
In 2016 and 2020, the polls were heavily biased for Hillary Clinton and Biden. We know this because their national margins were significantly smaller than what the polls predicted.
In 2024, it's understandable to be skeptical of polling data based on past inaccuracies, but each election cycle is unique. We shouldn't assume that pollsters haven’t tried to fix their methodologies to correct these past discrepancies.
I've been noticing many people on social media pointing to polls that show Trump behind and saying that he's actually ahead since he's still doing better than he was polling in the previous two cycles.
Don't do that. Sure, the polls may be wrong again, but they could be wrong to a lesser extent. Or maybe they are spot on. We won’t know until after Election Day, so assume they’re right, and fight like we're behind.
3. Neglecting down-ballot races
Focusing solely on the presidential race can be a critical oversight because control of the House and Senate are also at stake in this election. We need the Senate to confirm judges, and we need the House to stop Democrats from impeaching Trump again.
We also shouldn't lose sight of state races that could sway the balance of power in critical states. Democrats never forget the importance of local elections, and you shouldn’t either. Neglecting these races can lead to missed opportunities to influence the legislative agenda and impact the balance of power.
4. Underestimating Harris
Harris may not be the brightest bulb, but she has two things about her that are motivating Democrats this year: she’s a woman, and she’s a minority. There will be plenty of voters who vote for her just because of these two things. They don’t care about her policies or her lack of intelligence. They care about her gender and race.
Yes, she was the most unpopular vice president in the history of polling, but the surge of enthusiasm from the left after Biden dropped out tells us that this no longer matters. Identity politics alone could thrust her into the Oval Office just as it did Barack Obama.
5. Obsessing about 2020
There were definitely problems with the 2020 election — but it’s in the past. The best thing we can do about it now is to win decisively so we can pass commonsense election integrity laws. Simply making claims that the 2020 election was stolen can be a divisive and counterproductive strategy.
Election integrity is important, but focusing excessively on claims of widespread fraud can alienate potential supporters and overshadow current campaign messages. Emphasizing transparent and constructive solutions to make future elections secure so both sides can feel confident in the results regardless of who wins is the best message going forward.
