The state of the 2024 presidential election has changed over the past few weeks, and some of it is definitely due to Kamala Harris's "honeymoon period." But is it more than that? It may be, as Harris appears to be making huge inroads with portions of the electorate that were previously disengaged when the race was a Biden/Trump rematch, and Trump may not be doing what is necessary to address it.
In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, longtime GOP pollster Frank Luntz said that he's noticing a "broad shift" in the 2024 polls toward Harris. According to Luntz, Harris is gaining momentum due to her "intensity advantage," while former President Trump is increasingly committing "political suicide."
He explained that Harris's surge in enthusiasm is mobilizing a segment of the electorate that might not have voted if Biden remained the nominee. Luntz also predicts that this shift could have significant down-ballot effects, potentially leading to Democratic victories in both the Senate and the House.
“The actual people who are participating. She’s got intensity now. She’s got an intensity advantage. She’s got a demographic advantage. And I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime,” Luntz explained.
While this may only create a shift of one to two percent in her favor, that might just be enough in a close election. Luntz argued that Trump should be ahead in the election.
“The issues and conditions favor Donald Trump. He should be winning this election. But the attributes are so much in Harris’s favor that he’s not,” he said. "I’m trying to do a focus group tonight with undecided voters under the age of 27 for a major news outlet. And I can’t recruit young women to this because they don’t exist as undecided voters."
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Luntz added, “The people who are ‘undecided’ have all collapsed towards Harris. The people who are ‘weak Trump’ have all collapsed towards ‘undecided.’ It’s this broad shift."
And Trump's unforced errors are the problem.
Luntz also noted that Trump, at times, appears to be undermining the appeal of his own attributes. He pointed to a recent moment where Trump praised X owner Elon Musk for firing union workers who went on strike to protest for better working conditions.
“Why is Donald Trump saying publicly, I want to fire the same people that he’s getting now, still getting, union members?” Luntz said. “It’s ridiculous. It’s as though he’s lost control.”
“And I know that there are billionaires who watch this show who are spending a lot of money on Donald Trump, and they don’t understand why he’s committing political suicide,” Luntz said.
There's no use in denying that Trump's own words have likely done more harm to his campaign than anything else. Yes, Kamala was going to see a boost in the polls after becoming the party's presumptive nominee.
However, Trump's failure to stay on message and focus on the issues that will define this election and define Harris has been mind-boggling, as the election has gone from a Trump landslide to a coin-flip in the polls. And for those who are deeply concerned about what Harris will do to this country, that's too close for comfort.
