The Biden-Harris campaign couldn't contain their excitement when they found one poll—that's right, one poll—that showed Biden ahead of Trump nationally. Sure, it only showed Biden up by two points—well within the poll's margin of error—and yes, the vast majority of polls show Trump up, but still, you've gotta keep the base thinking there's hope. But are there other signs that Biden has pulled ahead?
For one thing, Biden has, for the first time, taken the lead in FiveThirtyEight's national polling average this year.
Biden is "ahead" in our national polling average for the first time all year https://t.co/cdR35yt9ac pic.twitter.com/aPKGKENAno
— G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) June 20, 2024
It's worth noting that Trump still has the lead in the RealClearPolitics national average. That said, both candidates' leads are less than a point.
In other words, on a national level, it's tied. But important context is needed here. In 2020, Joe Biden had a 9.8-point lead in the RCP national average at this point in the campaign, and Hillary Clinton had a 5.8-point average lead. Trump lost the popular vote in 2020 by 4.5 points, and that race still came down less than 50,000 votes collectively in just a few battleground states. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points and yet won the Electoral College. In short, I'm telling you what you already know: the national polls are not the best way to predict the outcome of the presidential election, but even so, Trump is performing significantly better today than he was four and eight years ago.
That isn't stopping the Biden campaign from promoting this one poll.
Fox: The latest Fox News poll shows Biden leading over Trump pic.twitter.com/WDMsEArYdY
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) June 20, 2024
Yet, of course, Democrats have gotten all excited about the latest poll showing Biden ahead, even though it is from Fox News.
For our VIPs: Did Trump Just Neutralize Another Biden Advantage?
Even Nate Silver is mocking those on the left who are acting excited about the poll.
Literally same dudes who said two weeks ago that Fox News was rigging its polls (state polls, bad for Biden) now touting Fox News polls (national poll, good for Biden). pic.twitter.com/66lV8yoUwx
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 20, 2024
So, what do the polls that really matter say? Well, the latest Emerson/The Hill poll shows Trump ahead in all of the battleground states and shows a tied race in Minnesota.
JUNE STATE POLLS with @thehill
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) June 20, 2024
AZ: 47% Trump, 43% Biden
GA: 45% Trump, 41% Biden
MI: 46% Trump, 45% Biden
MN: 45% Trump, 45% Biden
NV: 46% Trump, 43% Biden
PA: 47% Trump, 45% Biden
WI: 47% Trump, 44% Bidenhttps://t.co/JvHu3EZT4M pic.twitter.com/P6MuS7JNvT
So, let's do the math: if we give Trump all the states he's ahead in and give Biden Minnesota, Trump wins the presidency 312-226.
In almost every way, Trump has a clear advantage in the polls that matter. The left is touting a marginal lead in national polling because that's literally the only thing they can point to that can give the base hope. After months (or years depending on how you look at it) of Democrat insiders calling on Joe Biden not to run or drop out of the race, those who aren't paid to tell the Democratic Party what they want to hear are panicking about the election.
