WHOA! Trump Might Be Right About New York

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Last month, while in New York City for his sham trial, former President Donald Trump indicated to reporters his intention to "make a play for New York" in the 2024 election.


"We're very close in New York, I understand," Trump said. "We're leading the country by a lot. A poll just came out a little while ago, as you saw yesterday that we have—we're up in every swing state and up by a lot in every swing state. So I think we're gonna do very well, and we're gonna make a play for New York."

"Biden is the worst president in history and we have some very bad people here, but we have the greatest people, and they're right behind me,” Trump added. "We have a good chance of winning New York, in my opinion, but we're gonna give it a shot."

For our VIPs: Another Blue State Could Be in Play in November

Was he being serious, or was it a head fake? Honestly, I figure he was serious. Given the huge crowds of supporters he’s managed to get in deep blue New York, it certainly has looked like Trump has supporters in places you never expected. That said, at the time I said it was a mistake for Trump to waste time and resources there. But, a new poll suggests maybe he was onto something.

According to the latest Siena College poll, Biden still leads Trump in the Empire State, but his lead has dropped to single digits. 

Biden maintains a lead over Trump with 47% of the vote, compared to the former president's 38%. This is a slight narrowing of the gap since last month, when Biden led Trump 47%-37%.

New York voters remain deeply polarized over the two candidates, however, with 32% of voters saying a Biden victory will "irreparably harm America," and 41% saying the same about a Trump victory.

Just 18% of voters, including between 16%-19% of Democrats, Republicans and Independents, say they are confident that America will survive and thrive regardless of the outcome, the poll also found.


In 2020, Joe Biden won New York by 23 points, and back in September, a Siena College poll showed Biden with a 21-point lead in the state.

The New York Post has more.

His lead further shrank to seven points over Trump — who is accused of 91 felonies — when third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West were added to the equation, the survey found.

Biden’s diminished lead is less than a third of his margin of victory in 2020, when he beat Trump 61% to 38% in the Empire State.

Political strategist Hank Sheinkopf calling Biden’s diminished lead in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1 “shocking.”

“If Biden is in trouble in one of the bluest states, imagine what’s happening in the rest of the country,” Sheinkopf said. 

“It’s a clear message to the Democrats. If it ain’t working in New York, don’t take the show on the road.”

The new Siena poll shows that Biden's popularity with his base has been hurt by the border crisis, which has directly impacted New York City as over 130,000 asylum seekers have been relocated to the city since last spring. 

"Voters are angry. It’s the migrants, the economy. People don’t think Biden is strong enough to handle the challenges,” Sheinkopf said. "This is not good news for Democrats in New York state."


Does that really mean Trump should spend time and resources in New York? I wouldn’t go that far yet, but I do think that Sheinkopf is right. If Biden has seen such a huge decline in support in New York, of all places, things have got to be much, much worse for him in the battleground states.


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