Some Republicans have expressed concern over the recent tightening between Trump and Biden in the national polls. As I noted on Tuesday, Trump's lead in the RealClearPolitics average has gone from 4.3 points in January to a mere 0.2 points at present.
Much of that tightening appears to simply be Democrat voters who were going to vote for Biden anyway and were simply "coming home" after he didn't stroke out during the State of the Union and secured the Democratic nomination. But his approval ratings haven't improved, and his numbers still remain in the usual range.
Of course, the real thing that people need to consider is that national polling, while it can be useful information, won't give us the best picture of which candidate is likely to win. As I wrote, "polling of battleground states still points to a Trump victory." We have some new battleground state polling to look at, and it still looks good for Trump.
The latest poll from Echelon Insights shows Trump doing extremely well in the battleground states, leading 50% to 45% in all six battlegrounds. By state, the picture looks even better, as Trump leads in Georgia (+10), Nevada (+7), Pennsylvania (+4), Michigan (+6), and Arizona (+6). The only state Trump trails in is Wisconsin, and that's just by a point.
The poll not only measured definite votes for each candidate but also probable votes. Trump leads in both categories and leads with swing voters by five points.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @EchelonInsights/@Heritage (R)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 15, 2024
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump 52% (+10)
🟦 Biden 42%
.
NEVADA
🟥 Trump 51% (+7)
🟦 Biden 44%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump 49% (+4)
🟦 Biden 45%
.
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump 51% (+6)
🟦 Biden 45%
.
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump 51% (+6)
🟦 Biden 45%
.
WISCONSIN
🟦 Biden… pic.twitter.com/RNFrsbCvPC
Boiling this poll down to its essence, Trump has a relatively comfortable lead in all but one of the battlegrounds, and he's essentially tied in the last one. Based on this poll, if the election were held today, Trump would win the election by 302 Electoral College votes to Biden's 236, assuming all else remains the same from 2020.
Related: The Reason Why Trump Will Win in 2024
While it may be foolish to draw conclusions from a single poll, this is fairly consistent with what we've seen in battleground state polling for months now. The consistent polling this year informs us that most of the electorate has made up its mind about these two candidates, which makes sense because both are known quantities to the public.
Yes, there's plenty of time for things to change, but Trump is clearly in the lead at this point. Based on other findings within the poll, it's hard to see how Biden can make up ground. The poll found that swing voters blame Biden for the border crisis and inflation and prefer a conservative governing agenda. In short, when it comes to the issues people care about, the advantage swings heavily to Trump. There may be plenty of voters who don't like him, but that doesn't change the fact they know that things were better under Trump's leadership with Trump's policies.
What can Biden do to change that that he hasn't tried already?
