Last week, the left saw a glimmer of hope, as it appeared that Biden had started to close the gap with Trump in the polls. The latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showed Biden gaining ground in six key battleground states, and the media promptly pushed the narrative that Biden's State of the Union address had effectively neutralized the age issue for Joe Biden.
"Trump still leads across the seven states in this new poll, but the race is tightening with the former president at 47% to Biden’s 43%,” Nia-Malika Henderson of Bloomberg explained. "But Biden gained ground against Trump in six of the key states — significantly so in at least two, according to the poll."
While the media saw the silver lining they'd been hoping for, Jason McMann, the lead political analyst at Morning Consult, warned that it has yet to be determined "whether it holds."
We don't have a new poll from the Morning Consult yet, but we do have a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, and it may have crushed all hope that Biden's fortunes had changed. The poll, which was released Tuesday evening, found that with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, Trump still leads Biden in six out of seven key battleground states that will decide the outcome of the 2024 presidential election: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Of these states, Biden only leads in Wisconsin.
In a two-way match-up between Trump and Biden, Trump's lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina ranges from one to six points, and Biden and Trump are tied in Wisconsin.
How's that Biden bump looking now?
"The president’s unfavorable job reviews outweigh the favorable by 16 points or more in every state in the Journal survey. On the other hand, Trump’s net negative rating in Arizona stands at just one point," notes National Review. "Trump beats his opponent on the economy and immigration by 20 points, while Biden maintains a 12-point lead on abortion — an issue the Biden campaign is expected to continue emphasizing in the months ahead."
Related: Did Biden Get a Bump From the State of the Union After All?
Naturally, the issue of physical and mental acuity is another factor impacting the polls. The Journal poll found that Trump beat Biden 48% to 28% on which candidate voters believe is best able to handle the job. What this tells us is that Joe Biden's State of the Union address didn't do enough to assuage concerns about his ability to handle the presidency, or that its impact was very short-lived.
Of course, the biggest issues for voters are the economy and inflation, and as you most likely figured out, voters aren't exactly thrilled about either right now.
While views of the national economy are pessimistic, voters generally don’t view the respective economies in their home states the same way. North Carolina, for example, sees 66 percent of respondents viewing the state’s economy positively compared to 33 percent viewing it negatively. These numbers are reversed when respondents were asked to rate the national economy.
When you think about the effort that Biden has put into convincing voters that the economy is in good shape, that's a significant finding.
The bottom line here is that whatever bump Biden may have gotten out of the State of the Union hasn't lasted. He's not seeing the gains he needs to see, and, perhaps even more importantly, his State of the Union speech didn't neutralize the age/health issue.
Essentially, Biden is no better off today than he was before the State of the Union.
