Nikki Haley has yet to win a primary contest and is so far behind Donald Trump in the polls that it made little sense why she didn't drop out after New Hampshire. Many noted at the time, myself included, that she had no viable path to winning the nomination, yet she treated her second-place finish in a two-person race in New Hampshire as some sort of victory. She went on to lose big in the Nevada primary to "none of these candidates."
As if that wasn't embarrassing enough, polls show that she is on the verge of losing big in her home state of South Carolina — a state she served as governor. Is she going to add to her growing list of humiliations by continuing her campaign?
On Monday night, her campaign sent out a media announcement that she intends to deliver a "State of the Race Speech" on Tuesday in Greenville, S.C.
From Nikki Haley campaign. Tomorrow, noon, in Greenville: pic.twitter.com/hgcefOpUdm
— Byron York (@ByronYork) February 19, 2024
Naturally, this announcement has prompted speculation that Haley intends to drop out of the race rather than face a humiliating defeat in South Carolina. Honestly, her campaign died in New Hampshire, we're just waiting for her to finally bury it, and it's hardly unreasonable to speculate that Haley (and perhaps her big donors) have decided it's time to get the shovels out.
The problem with her dropping out now is everyone will know the reason why. The latest Winthrop University poll of the GOP primary in South Carolina puts Trump at 65% support compared to Haley's 29% — a commanding 36-point lead for Trump.
Dr. Scott Huffmon, director of the Winthrop Poll, said:
We did not ask Democrats or Independents who Lean Democratic if they intended to vote on February 24, but to the degree that there is any crossover voting, it is likely to help Haley. However, not only is crossover voting less prevalent than many partisans make it out to be, it would take quite a few crossover votes to cut into Trump’s lead. That said, Haley has several avenues left to motivate voters. These include motivating on-the-fence Independents as well as potential, if unlikely, crossover voters in order to cut Trump’s lead. Haley losing to “None of these candidates” in the Nevada primary while our survey was in the field certainly couldn’t have helped her cause in our poll of Likely Voters in South Carolina. One of the most notable findings was the drop in Haley’s favorability ratings in her home state. With the exception of when she defied the Tea Party and endorsed Mitt Romney in the GOP primary, she has always enjoyed very high approval and favorability ratings among Republicans in her home state. However, as we look at her favorability ratings among Republicans in South Carolina between the November 2023 Winthrop Poll and now, we see a significant dip in favorability and a rise in unfavorability that seems to correspond with her increasing attacks on Trump. This would seem to indicate that in South Carolina, as apparently in the nation as a whole, that the Republican Party is very much Trump’s party.
Has Nikki Haley gotten the message yet?
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