There’s a lot more on the line than the presidency this year. Control of the U.S. Senate is also on the line, and the map looks particularly good for Republicans in 2024, as more Democrats are defending seats in this cycle than Republicans.
Really good.
In fact, Republicans are favored to win back the majority, and several forecasts suggest that if the GOP does, it may be a few cycles before Democrats will realistically have a chance of winning it back. This means that the bigger the majority that Republicans can secure in 2024, the safer the upper chamber will be against a potential shift back to Democratic control.
Naturally, Democrats running for reelection this year in the ever so important battleground states are keeping their distance from Joe Biden. According to an analysis by The Daily Caller, Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Bob Casey (D-Pa.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.), and Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Senate candidates Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) "have hardly mentioned Biden in social media posts on X since launching their 2024 bids, but overwhelmingly vote with him in Congress," and when they have mentioned him, it's often been to criticize him or his policies.
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“Whether they have the guts to say his name or not, every single Democrat running for Senate has enabled Joe Biden’s disastrous agenda,” National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Tate Mitchell told The Daily Caller in a statement. “They are directly responsible for the open border, rising crime, and sky-high prices that are hallmarks of Biden’s failed leadership, and American voters won’t forget it.”
Most of the Senate seats above were previously cited by PJ Media as most likely to flip to the Republicans in 2024: Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. But, the fact that even Tammy Baldwin isn't embracing Joe Biden is telling, as previous attempts to unseat her have failed, and she won reelection in 2018 by 11 points. Polls have also shown Bob Casey with a relatively solid lead in Pennsylvania—but the polls there are extremely tight between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and could be problematic for Casey as the campaign heats up. Notably, the last time he sought reelection during a presidential election year was 2012—when Barack Obama was reelected.
In Arizona, Trump's been consistently polling ahead of Biden, and his strength there appears to be boosting Kari Lake's Senate bid. Lake wasn't very good against Gallego last year, and that appears to have changed, as polls have tightened, while Gallego attempts to expand the distance between him and Biden. You can imagine that Lake won't let the voters of Arizona be in the dark about his real record.
In Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin's lead in the polls has shrunk considerably since last year. She is even losing to Republican James Craig in one recent poll—albeit within the margin of error. But, Trump currently leads in the state by 5.1 points in the RealClearPolitics average, which bodes well for Craig as the campaign progresses.
Clearly, Democrats are assessing political realities and are doing everything possible to distance themselves from Biden to maintain a chance for victory in November. And that may be more informative than the polls.
