Believe it or not, Joe Biden may have a problem winning blue states in November.
When incumbent presidents seek reelection, they typically aim to expand their coalition of support. Typically, those who succeed in doing so win reelection. In 2004, George W. Bush lost New Hampshire after having won it four years prior, but expanded his Electoral College map by winning New Mexico and Iowa.
Joe Biden starts off the 2024 race already in bad shape, as the latest Morning Consult poll shows he is behind Trump in all of the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election. All of them.
According to the poll, Trump leads in Wisconsin (+5), Pennsylvania (+3), Nevada (+8), Georgia (+8), Michigan (+5), North Carolina (+10) and Arizona (+3).
Hey, Joe, how do you like them apples?
But Biden’s problems may be bigger than the swing states. Trump may be favored to win most of them and wouldn’t even have to win all of them to win the election, but Joe Biden may have to spend extra resources trying to keep blue states blue, which is a major problem for him nine months out from this election.
One blue state that is looking winnable for Trump is Minnesota.
I know what you’re thinking: "Minnesota? That state hasn’t voted for a Republican since Nixon! It’s the one state that didn’t vote for Ronald Reagan in 1984.” Am I right? But, trust me, Joe Biden has been such a disaster that Minnesota is most definitely in play this year.
It’s true that the polls have consistently shown Joe Biden with a lead in the state, but that’s not the entire story. There haven’t been many polls out of Minnesota, but the last three polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight tell us a lot about what’s going on in the state.
The most recent poll, conducted at the end of January, comes from SurveyUSA, which puts Biden up a mere three points, 42% to 39%. The margin of error in this poll is 2.8 points.
Related: Can Biden Fix His Problem With Black Voters?
The previous poll, from Embold Research, conducted in mid-November, also had Biden up a mere three points. The margin of error in this poll is 2.6 points.
The one before that, which was conducted by Emerson College in October, had Biden up by just two points. The margin of error in this poll is 4.4 points.
So, Biden has a small lead in this state, either within or just outside the margin of error. If you were on Joe Biden’s presidential campaign right now, you’d be asking for a change of pants.
Let's put this in context. In 2020, Biden's lead in the polls in Minnesota ranged from eight to fifteen points, depending on the poll. It didn't look, smell, or taste like a battleground state. The same can't be said today.
"You have an incumbent president. It’s his fourth year, an election year. He is well known. People have often made up their minds about the incumbent, and Joe Biden is at 54% disapproval in Minnesota. That is not good news for him," Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier told KSTP-TV, which sponsored the latest SurveyUSA poll.
So, make no mistake about it, the polls show that Trump can win Minnesota. If a recession hits this year, as some economists are predicting, I dare say he could win Minnesota and perhaps another blueish-purple state like Virginia.
