While the mainstream media has been absolutely triggered by Donald Trump’s expected victory in the Iowa caucuses, the real story is getting lost in the noise: Nikki Haley lost.
Yes, Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson have since dropped out, but they were both polling in single digits — and who even knew Hutchinson was still in the race anyway? — but the real question of the night was who would finish second. It certainly mattered to both Ron DeSantis and Haley, but Haley needed to prove that she had eclipsed DeSantis and failed to do so. In fact, her top surrogates had been saying that a “strong second-place finish” was their primary objective.
“Having a strong second-place finish was always our goal,” Gov. Chris Sununu, a Haley supporter said earlier this month before predicting that Haley would ultimately win the New Hampshire primary.
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So much for that.
“In truth, nobody this side of Vivek had [a] worse night than Nikki,” Jonathan Martin of Politico observed. "She used debates to gain momentum, DeSantis had 189 awful process stories and she still couldn't get to a distant second. NH isn't the issue - it's that SC and beyond looks more like Iowa.”
But if you ask Haley, it was a tremendous win for her.
"I can safely say tonight Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race,” Haley told her supporters Monday night.
Maybe, but not between her and Trump. The only way that could have happened is if she decisively defeated DeSantis, and she didn’t. Had DeSantis come in a distant third, it would have likely resulted in a loss of financial support and a ton of pressure to drop out. But instead, she’s bailing on the next debate — a clear sign that she knows that her recent debate with DeSantis hurt her in Iowa, and she’s desperately trying to salvage her recent momentum in New Hampshire.
What impact will her third-place showing have on the New Hampshire primary? It’s hard to say, but if I were on Team Haley, I’d have been more confident about her chances if she’d come in a solid second place than in third. As such, the only strategy they can muster is trying to contain the fallout and not have another disastrous debate performance.
“I won’t snub New Hampshire voters like both Nikki Haley and Donald Trump and plan to honor my commitments,” DeSantis said in response to Haley’s plan to bail on the next debate. "I look forward to debating two empty podiums in the Granite State this week."
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Make no mistake about it, Haley’s third-place showing in Iowa was a hugely disappointing moment for her campaign. Her campaign and allied groups spent more money than any other candidate in Iowa, most of which was devoted to attacking DeSantis. So she spent the most per vote and still came in third place.
“They threw everything but the kitchen sink at us,” DeSantis said on Monday night. “They spent almost $50 million attacking us. No one’s faced that much all the way just through Iowa. The media was against us. They were writing our obituary months ago.”
