Things are getting worse for Joe Biden. There’s no denying that Donald Trump currently has all the momentum at this stage of the 2024 election, as fewer Americans are undecided about whom they will support and more Americans are choosing Trump—and by a wider margin.
In fact, Donald Trump has just hit his highest spread in the RealClearPolitics average. Their average of recent polls puts Trump 3.2 points ahead of Joe Biden, eclipsing his previous record spread of 2.6 points. For what it's worth, Trump never topped Biden in the RealClearPolitics average during the 2020 campaign.
Now, Biden hasn’t led in the spread since mid-September. It’s been an utterly disastrous couple of months for him, and it’s about to get worse with his son Hunter Biden’s legal troubles and the formal impeachment inquiry that has just been approved by the House.
But one of the more shocking things about Joe Biden's polling is that, while most polls have been showing him down, one pollster has consistently shown him ahead—until now.
And that pollster is Rasmussen. That's right. For months, Biden has been polling better in Rasmussen's polls than many others—and this is a pollster many leftists have claimed has a right-wing bias. But alas, his approval ratings have tended to be higher in Rasmussen's surveys than others, and last month's matchup poll had him 4 points ahead of Trump. Before that, in their September poll, Biden was up by one point. But December's poll has Trump up a whopping ten points over Biden. It may be an outlier, but it tells you that even their polling methods are showing a dramatic swing in Trump's direction.
"Waning enthusiasm for Biden among Democrats is clearly a factor in shifting voter preferences since the November survey," explains Rasmussen. "In a two-way matchup between Biden and Trump, only 69% of Democratic voters would choose Biden, compared to 81% of Republican voters who would choose Trump. In the November survey, Biden got 79% of Democratic voters while Trump was at 73% among GOP voters."
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"The same pattern is evident in a three-way contest between Biden, Trump and RFK Jr.," Rasmussen continues. "In such a matchup, Biden would only get 58% support from Democrats, while Kennedy would get 16%. In a three-way race, there are also more Democrats who would vote for Trump (16%) than there are Republicans who would vote for Biden (9%)."
Trmup's lead with unaffiliated voters also stands at 12 points.
So, what does this all mean? Well, at this point, it's so far out from the election that it's easy to dismiss these polls as irrelevant because anything can happen in the next 11 months. And that's true. And it's on Trump—the current frontrunner and likely nominee—to run a solid campaign and not mess things up. As Sen. Lindsey Graham said two years ago, the 2024 presidential election is his to lose.
"It is his nomination if he wants it," Graham added. "And he will be in the White House in 2024 if he runs a disciplined campaign. And what he should do, in my humble opinion, is remind people how he secured the border, how he took the fight to ISIS, destroyed the caliphate, how we were so much better off internationally—the Iran deal is a nightmare in the making for Israel—regained energy independence."
"So I think 2024 is President Trump's election to lose, quite frankly." Graham concluded.
