Well, it looks like Kari Lake will soon be announcing that she’s running for the Senate. It has long been rumored that Lake was considering a Senate bid, and there were also rumors she was angling to be Donald Trump’s running mate in 2024. Polling has shown that she is the runaway frontrunner for the GOP nomination if she does indeed enter the race.
“Her interest has largely frozen the GOP field for the seat, which is currently held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.). Blake Masters, the state’s 2022 Senate nominee, appears to be lingering on the sidelines after preparing to enter the race in September,” reports Politico. “There is no specific date set for Lake’s launch but it will almost certainly come in October, according to a person familiar with her plans who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. The Arizona race is a crucial swing state that could determine control of the Senate. Sinema’s switch to become an independent last year roiled the race for her seat. She has not said whether or not she will seek reelection and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego already launched a Senate campaign.”
While there was once a time when I thought Lake would be an ideal candidate for the U.S. Senate, that moment has long passed. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), who is already in the race, has been leading in the polls. One wild card in the race is what Sinema will do now that she’s an independent. Sinema is one of the most unpopular senators in the country, and Gallego manages to lead the polls even if she’s included in general election match-up polls.
Unfortunately, I’m not convinced that Lake can win. At one point, she led in general election polls for the Senate, but her approval ratings are underwater. A recent poll from Noble Predictive Insights of registered voters in Arizona found that Lake has a 51% disapproval rating, compared to a 35% approval rating.
The poll found that independents aren’t too fond of her, either. Her efforts to challenge the results of the gubernatorial election have clearly soured Arizona voters on her. Recent polls have shown that Republican Marty Lamb, who is already in the race, has a better shot at beating Gallego.
One problem for any Republican who is running is that polls show that if Sinema runs for reelection, she actually pulls more support from Republican voters than Democrats.
“It appears Senator Sinema pulls more support from Republican voters than Democrats on the ballot. About 21% of Republicans would vote for Sinema with Lamb on the ballot, and 34% of Republicans would support Sinema with Wright on the ballot,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said last month. “By contrast, Sinema only pulls about 8% of Democratic support from Gallego.”
About the only plus side to this is that by running for the Senate, Lake won’t be Trump’s running mate, assuming he is the nominee. But unfortunately, I think Lake’s entry into the race makes winning this seat back from the Democrats far more difficult.
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