Democrats Didn’t Blink, But They Didn’t Help Themselves Either

The Democrats on Tuesday blocked the continuing resolution that would have kept the government open. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y) is acting like Saruman in Lord of the Rings: “I gave you the chance of aiding me willingly, but you have elected the way of pain.“

                    Related: The Hardest Part of Playing Shutdown Chicken Is Knowing When to Blink

Speaker Mike Johnson is suggesting Schumer is playing politics because he fears a primary challenge from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. If Johnson is correct (and I think he’s probably got a point), Schumer is shutting down the government because he wants to save his seat, but he’s also sending the message that he'll do absolutely anything to hold onto his seat, regardless of how it may affect the country or even other Democrats. That’s not going to play well with his caucus or with the majority of the Democratic rank and file come the midterm elections. In fact from the point of view of the Democrats, it’ll make things worse. Fox News is reporting:

Nearly two-thirds of American voters say that the Democrats in Congress shouldn't force a federal government shutdown if their demands are not met, according to a new national poll. But a New York Times/Siena poll also indicates that voters would blame Republicans and President Donald Trump, as well as Democrats, if the government shuts down at midnight Tuesday.
Sixty-five percent of those questioned in the poll said Democrats should not shut down the government even if their demands are not met, with 27% disagreeing.

It has been suggested by some that the Democrats are trying to hold onto their base with this move. But look again. Assuming the voter base is nearly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, that 65% figure suggests that a large number of Democrats oppose the shutdown, even if their demands are not met. Democrats seem to be forgetting that the new rule on these things is 80/20, and they seem intent on going with the 20% every time..
 
And yes, that same poll, when you break it down by party, does show 47% of Democrats saying Dems should go to the mat with this shutdown. But that still means less than half of the Democratic rank and file support this move. Moreover, even assuming they hold the base, they’ve still not got nearly enough to win elections.

To Speaker Johnson’s point, the indications are that things are getting bad for Schumer in terms of holding his seat.

"The cracks in the Democrats are already showing," Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., said. "When we had a vote on our proposal to keep the government open, the clean CR right before the recess, we had one Democrat vote. Tonight we had three." Sens. John Fetterman, D-Pa., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Angus King, I-Maine, all crossed the aisle to support the bill.

This kind of rebellion historically tends to take on the motions of a wildfire. The number of Democrats unhappy with their leadership over this is larger than the vote tally would indicate, from what I’m being told. 

 I simply don’t see a net gain for Democrats on this one.This is not going to end well for them.

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