This was the year that the Democrats hoped to take back the U.S. Senate; after all, the Republicans were defending 24 seats, and the Dems only ten. Alas for them, the Trump wave pretty much swamped them, re-electing several shaky senators, such as Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, while sweeping away only the sad-sack from Illinois, Mark Kirk, and New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte, who unwisely threw in her lot with the McCain wing of the party and is now unemployed.
But in 2018, oh-oh: it’s Katy bar the door —
The sprawling, 10-person Democratic leadership team that Chuck Schumer assembled on Wednesday will allow him to hear from everyone from Bernie Sanders to Joe Manchin. And Democrats are going to need all the wisdom they can summon — from all quarters of the party — to survive what’s coming at them in 2018.
Still nursing their wounds after last [month’s] thrashing, Democrats already are grappling with how to defend 10 senators up for reelection in 2018 in states that Donald Trump carried, some resoundingly. Republicans are targeting a quintet of senators from conservative states where Trump walloped Hillary Clinton: Montana, Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota and West Virginia. The GOP could amass a filibuster-proof majority by running the table in those states and other battlegrounds.
To prevent that, Schumer will need to mine his fellow leaders to accommodate vulnerable Democrats with profoundly different ideologies and political circumstances — from Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin, who also was tapped for a leadership spot, to West Virginia’s Manchin, who has gone out of his way to align himself with Trump voters… That means appealing to the white working class in some states — and stoking minority and liberal turnout in others.
Depending on the outcome of today’s Senate race in Louisiana — the GOP candidate is heavily favored — Republicans will hold a narrow 52-48 majority, once the “independents” are factored in. [UPDATE: the Republican has won.]That’s why one of the GOP’s top priorities is getting a much larger Senate majority as quickly as possible. Even before the voting in 2018, however, two possible switches include West Virginia’s Manchin, whose white-working-class state wouldn’t mind a bit if he switched parties, and North Dakota’s Democrat Senator Heidi Heitkamp, who is being bruited for secretary of agriculture in the Trump administration.
The first-term Democrat from North Dakota and member of the Senate Agriculture Committee has been a vocal advocate for farmers and broke from her party on several controversial policy issues, including the labeling of genetically modified foods and environmental protection for wetlands and waterways.
A special election to replace Heitkamp would almost certainly turn her seat over to a Republican, so the choice would give Trump a chance to appear conciliatory to Democrats, albeit with a lower-profile Cabinet role, while allowing the GOP to bolster its Senate majority.
Heitkamp, who met with the president-elect at Trump Tower on Dec. 2, is facing a tough race in a deep red state in 2018. In a further sign she is a strong contender for a Cabinet post, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell met with North Dakota Rep. Kevin Cramer on Tuesday about a potential open Senate seat. A source close to the transition said gaining another Republican Senate seat was on the list of reasons for picking Heitkamp.
A Manchin switch and a Heitkamp replacement give the Republicans a more comfortable 54-46 majority, with 24 more Democrat seats up for grabs. This could be a bloodbath for the Democrats, already wiped out at the state and local level in most places, and now facing a humiliating defeat two years hence.
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