2:07 A.M.
I’m calling it a night — it looks like Trump will win Hawaii, although only 27 percent is reporting. Trump had a good night tonight, and Cruz did acceptably. Kasich’s loss in Michigan, a close border state to Ohio, seems rather devastating, especially considering that Cruz defeated him for second place. Rubio had a disastrous night, picking up either no delegates, or a paltry few from Hawaii.
This night has not necessarily altered the race in any meaningful way, except to further highlight that Cruz may be the only candidate to stop The Donald. While Trump leads by large margins, Cruz may be becoming competitive against him. While it remains true that later states tend to prefer more moderate candidates, Kasich’s failure to beat Cruz in Michigan may speak to his inadequacy as a candidate. It is still possible for Kasich or Rubio to pick up steam later, but it will have to be soon — March 15 is coming around the corner, and with it the key states of Florida and Ohio.
Trump will end the night with more than 446 delegates, and Cruz will likely gain a few from his current number of 347. This means that Trump will have at least 36 percent of the delegates he needs to win the nomination, and Cruz will have 28 percent. It is possible that we’re headed toward a contested convention, especially if Kasich somehow wins Ohio and Rubio somehow wins Florida (both of these are unlikely, however). This may not be the worst scenario — Ronald Reagan fought the 1976 nomination to a contested convention, and only narrowly lost to Gerald Ford.
Sanders’s win in Michigan was a huge upset, and will be discussed at length in the coming week. Ultimately, though, he still has a long way to go in order to challenge Hillary.
Latest Hawaii results — 27 percent reporting:
Trump — 46.6 percent (728 votes). Cruz — 28.2 percent (440 votes). Rubio — 13.1 percent (205 votes). Kasich — 10.2 percent (159 votes).
1:44 A.M.
Latest Hawaii results — 13 percent reporting:
Trump — 42.1 percent (241 votes). Cruz — 27.9 percent (160 votes). Rubio — 14.7 percent (84 votes). Kasich — 14.1 percent (81 votes).
Kasich essentially tied with Rubio for third, but there are still a lot of votes to come in.
This was before Hawaii, but still.
Quick thoughts on tonight:
Trump: Birdie
Cruz: Birdie
Kasich: Par/Bogey
Rubio: Double Bogeyhttps://t.co/CLxsnFhysh— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 9, 2016
1:26 A.M.
Rubio touts former lieutenant governor endorsement in Hawaii.
Honored to have the support of Hawaii’s former Lt. Governor Duke Aiona. Make sure to caucus for me tonight, Hawaii! https://t.co/7Bwu6aZdA6
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 8, 2016
The Governator has a message for Hawaiians. He wants them to vote — I want them to give us their results!
Listen to Gov. @Schwarzenegger’s msg for caucus voters tonight in Hawaii …. you’ll want to hear how he closes it.https://t.co/neYoaKvtxD
— John Kasich (@JohnKasich) March 9, 2016
1:22 A.M.
Rubio accuses Cruz campaign of doing a “drop out email” in Hawaii, like the rumors that Carson would drop before Iowa.
Rubio camp accuses Cruz of ‘dirty tricks’ over Hawaii ‘dropout’ email https://t.co/RMxFZOByb3
— Tabitha Bliss (@BlissTabitha) March 9, 2016
Tallies: From Mississippi — 99 percent reporting:
Trump — 47.3 percent, 24 delegates. Cruz — 36.3 percent, 13 delegates. Kasich — 8.8 percent, zero delegates. Rubio — 5.1 percent, zero delegates.
Michigan — 98 percent reporting:
Trump — 36.5 percent, 25 delegates. Cruz — 24.9 percent, 17 delegates. Kasich — 24.3 percent, 17 delegates. Rubio — 9.3 percent, zero delegates.
Idaho — 78 percent reporting:
Cruz — 44.0 percent, 14 delegates. Trump — 28.2 percent, 10 delegates. Rubio — 17.2 percent, zero delegates. Kasich — 7.4 percent, zero delegates.
1:14 A.M.
So apparently this happened at the Trump press conference:
Hey @CLewandowski_ you pathetic excuse for a man, apologize. Now. https://t.co/wMkTdAa0Cj
— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) March 9, 2016
Also, some Rubio folks are already jumping to Cruz.
Rubio backer jumping over to Cruz –> https://t.co/j4oQaQzI4K
— Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) March 9, 2016
1:10 A.M.
Polls are closed in Hawaii — results forthcoming.
Here’s some, uh, commentary:
If Rubio wins Hawaii, that’s like his wins in Minnesota and Puerto Rico…
Only kinda a state.
— John Nolte (@NolteNC) March 9, 2016
And this is mean, kicking a man while he’s down. Accurate, though:
Good news for Rubio in Hawaii: There’s no official delegate threshold.
— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) March 9, 2016
12:58 A.M.
Closed vs. open primaries, some say, are making the difference between Cruz and Trump victories.
And again we have a closed primary and Cruz wins, Trump loses.
— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) March 9, 2016
And Trump is still on track to win the G.O.P. nomination, according to FiveThirtyEight’s tool
Trump still “on track” for the GOP nomination after tonight. Needed to win 25 delegates in Michigan, won exactly 25. https://t.co/9L8jeQtg2p
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 9, 2016
12:49 A.M.
Calls for Rubio to kamikaze Trump to support Cruz are increasing.
The winning play is simple: Rubio attacks Trump non-stop during Thursday’s debate, then uses final statement to drop out and endorse Cruz.
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) March 9, 2016
Some blame Rubio for Trump’s lead.
This is exactly right https://t.co/muwg9fl0OY
— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) March 9, 2016
12:44 A.M.
Paul O’Neill, the retired Yankees right fielder, is also trending on Twitter, following his endorsement of Trump in The Donald’s press conference.
Ex-Yankee Paul O’Neill endorses @realDonaldTrump! #Trump #Trump2016 #TrumpTrain #AlwaysTrump pic.twitter.com/Z9MWRJe0Tc
— ArtMofo (@Art_Mofo) March 9, 2016
But not all of the tweets are positive.
New York paper slams Paul O’Neill for supporting Donald Trump. https://t.co/aQy8KyLwdo pic.twitter.com/U7y7TzB0bG
— theScore (@theScore) March 9, 2016
12:41 A.M.
Trump supporters are usurping the #IfTrumpWins hashtag.
#ifTrumpWins he will #MakeAmericaGreatAgain pic.twitter.com/wOjepOjsvK
— Master Miller (@j_millerworks) March 9, 2016
#IfTrumpWins Americans win! pic.twitter.com/a13MZ6157U
— jennifer (@jenilynn1001) March 9, 2016
Although this one’s pretty good.
#IfTrumpWins Canada is going to have to build a wall of their own to keep us out.
— Terry Cecil (@TerryThaTitan) March 9, 2016
12:37 A.M.
For all the talk about Sanders’s poll-defying upset in Michigan, it looks like Clinton will still take more delegates from tonight. Michigan gives Sanders 65 delegates and Clinton 57 delegates, while Mississippi gives Clinton 29 delegates and Sanders only 4 delegates. Totals — 86 for Clinton, 69 for Sanders.
On the G.O.P. side, it’s still too early to tell how many delegates Cruz will win in Idaho. Michigan has awarded Trump 25 delegates, and 17 each to Cruz and Kasich. In Mississippi, Trump has 24 delegates to Cruz’s 13.
#IfTrumpWins is trending on Twitter.
#IfTrumpWins https://t.co/0xwQ7J4LTh
— Jone & Company (@JoneAndCompany) March 9, 2016
12:26 A.M.
Poll shows majority of voters view Trump negatively, say he would bring “the wrong kind of change.”
Trump may be racking up wins, but 64% of voters see him negatively & 52% think he’d bring “the wrong kind of change” https://t.co/1tzYTE2rIE
— Rebecca Ballhaus (@rebeccaballhaus) March 9, 2016
And this is hilarious.
I don’t want to hear anyone say Cruz can’t beat Hillary. She’s losing to a stark-raving socialist.
— Amanda Carpenter (@amandacarpenter) March 9, 2016
12:21 A.M.
FiveThirtyEight’s Dave Wasserman on how bad Rubio’s showing tonight was:
Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for Marco Rubio, it has tonight. Buried in the drama is the fact that Rubio has yet to win a single delegate in tonight’s primaries. Not only did he fall woefully short of hitting Mississippi’s 15 percent delegate threshold and 6 percentage points shy of hitting Michigan’s 15 percent threshold, his current 18 percent in Idaho is just barely below the Gem State’s 20 percent threshold. Luckily for Rubio, Hawaii’s lack of a delegate threshold is likely to save him from a humiliating shutout. But Rubio’s mainland fortunes couldn’t have fallen any further.
Some cheeky responses to Trump’s claim that Cruz hasn’t really beaten him.
Earlier today Trump said Cruz never beats him. I guess we can add Idaho to the states that Trump doesn’t count as relevant.
— Caleb Howe (@CalebHowe) March 9, 2016
12:14 A.M.
Michigan has the most black voters of any state Sanders has won.
Michigan is by far the most heavily African-American state Sanders has won. (14% of total pop, at least double any other state he’s won.)
— Alec MacGillis (@AlecMacGillis) March 9, 2016
Here’s a tongue-in-cheek explanation of why Cruz won Idaho.
Damn. Looks like Ted Cruz is getting the “favorite son” vote in Idaho. We do have a border with Canada, after all. ;-)
— W. Lane Startin (@wlanestartin) March 9, 2016
12:03 A.M.
Cruz is projected to win Idaho.
BOOM! TED CRUZ WINS IDAHO! https://t.co/3Q7ZKapxqg#SuperTuesday
— (R) Conservatives (@teaparty321) March 9, 2016
Inside Sanders’s gain among black voters in Michigan:
One reason Sanders won Michigan: Black Democrats outside the South aren’t as pro-Clinton as Southern black Democrats https://t.co/weeMEFumc9
— Carl Bialik (@CarlBialik) March 9, 2016
11:58 P.M.
Ted Cruz has pulled ahead of John Kasich in Michigan. With 92 percent reporting:
Trump — 36.8 percent, 448,612 votes. Cruz — 24.7 percent, 301,423 votes. Kasich — 24.3 percent, 296,783 votes. Rubio — 9.2 percent, 112,773 votes.
Ted Cruz Defies Expectations, Takes Second Place Over Kasich In Michigan | https://t.co/Fose5Ob3k9#RedNationRising #SuperTuesday
— (R) Conservatives (@teaparty321) March 9, 2016
11:54 P.M.
The Sanders win is huge because the polls predicted Clinton would trounce him. They were wrong by 21 points.
In the famous New Hampshire upset in ’08, Clinton trailed Obama by 8 points. Big upset. But today, Sanders trailed Clinton by *21* and won.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 9, 2016
Idaho is at 32 percent reporting:
Cruz — 41.1 percent. Trump — 29.5 percent. Rubio — 18.5 percent. Kasich — 6.8 percent.
11:52 P.M.
The AP has called Michigan for Sanders.
BREAKING: Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic presidential primary in Michigan. @AP race call at 11:30 p.m. EST. #Election2016 #APracecall
— The Associated Press (@AP) March 9, 2016
Cruz is still leading in Idaho.
Idaho, 26% of the vote in, Cruz 40%, Trump 31%, Cruz 18%.
— Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics) March 9, 2016
11:22 P.M.
Idaho — 4 percent reporting:
Cruz — 36.8 percent. Trump — 28.3 percent. Rubio — 23.4 percent. Kasich — 7.5 percent.
Mississippi update — 88 percent reporting:
Trump — 48.0 percent. Cruz — 36.4 percent. Kasich — 8.3 percent. Rubio — 4.9 percent.
In a Trump GOP, we’re setting up Galt’s Gulch in Bonneville County, Idaho. pic.twitter.com/3q2tc7lq0H
— #NeverTrump (@PatrickRuffini) March 9, 2016
11:17 P.M.
The Great Democratic Age Gap continues.
BERNIE WON 81% of young people today #MichiganPrimary
Clinton won 69%of the seniors today. #MIThey turned out in equal numbers, basically
— Alison Spalding (@AlisonSpalding2) March 9, 2016
This was from one month ago.
.@Hillsdale alumnus @Tyler2ONeil writes on the “Great Democratic Age Gap” and what it means for 2016: https://t.co/SNySEuAVno
— HC Kirby Center (@KirbyCenter) March 8, 2016
11:12 P.M.
With 81 percent of the vote in in Michigan, Kasich leads Cruz by less than 3,000 votes:
Trump — 37.1 percent, 402,417 votes.
Kasich — 24.6 percent, 266,359 votes.
Cruz — 24.3 percent, 263,829 votes.
Rubio — 9.2 percent, 99,503 votes.
Meanwhile, Sanders is almost 25,000 votes ahead of Clinton, also with 81 percent reporting.
11:09 P.M.
Idaho has same-day registration, and only a Republican primary tonight. Polls have closed.
In Idaho, Same Day Registration Could Make A Difference https://t.co/VnfLoISY9Q
— RedState (@RedState) March 9, 2016
And Sanders is up in Michigan.
In Michigan, Sanders is up 4 points with 73 percent in: https://t.co/vafeKq93Ti #PrimaryDay
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) March 9, 2016
10:54 P.M.
Is Trump running press conferences instead of victory rallies in order to appear more presidential?
New @CNN: Why Donald Trump is holding news conferences instead of victory rallies: https://t.co/jHfHOu9a4g pic.twitter.com/oVehNhTpig
— Dylan Byers (@DylanByers) March 9, 2016
And the guy who shot the pastor who prayed with Ted Cruz in Idaho was just arrested — at the White House.
MORE: CNN reports CDA church shooter suspect arrested at White House fence, arrested after he threw suspicious objects over fence.
— Kim Fields (@KimFieldsKTVB) March 9, 2016
10:50 P.M.
Polls will close in Idaho in ten minutes. Ted Cruz might surprise there.
And Decision Desk, which has a good track record, is saying Clinton wins, despite Sanders leading in the site’s own count.
Decision Desk has called Michigan for Hillary despite her being behind in its tally. Bold. https://t.co/zME8wBR9dV pic.twitter.com/OtL6V4x4qS
— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) March 9, 2016
10:45 P.M.
Those businesses, though.
Why’d Trump talk about all his failed businesses #Nevertrump #supertuesday 12 Trump businesses that no longer exist https://t.co/ezjC4tuPeE
— PrettyGirlG¯_(ツ)_/¯ (@PRETTYGIRLGG11) March 9, 2016
And Sanders is starting to pick up black voters.
One thing helping Sanders is a comparatively strong performance with African-American voters https://t.co/ywhtXbz3hn pic.twitter.com/CMQLm0zh4d
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) March 9, 2016
10:40 P.M.
Now here’s a fascinating question.
Red states may ultimately prevent blue states from nominating Bernie. Will blue states stop red states from nominating Trump?
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 9, 2016
And Trump has won Dearborn, the city with the highest concentration of Arab-Americans in the U.S.
Wow “@nwarikoo: ALERT: Trump has won Dearborn, city with highest concentration of Arab-American Muslims in the U.S.,#MichiganPrimary”
— Derek (@dvanbus) March 9, 2016
10:34 P.M.
Bernie Sanders is running strong among independents, really strong. FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten:
One result that has stayed consistent on the Democratic side is that self-identified independents are far more likely to vote for Sanders. The current exit poll estimate is that he is winning them in Michigan by a 70 percent to 28 percent margin. Clinton, on the other hand, leads among self-identified Democrats by 57 percent to 41 percent. Although party registration doesn’t necessarily match identification, it gives you an idea that Sanders really benefits from open primaries.
And when it comes to Democrat Millennial women, youth matters more than gender, in Michigan.
In Dem #MIprimary, over 2/3 of women voters under 45 chose @BernieSanders: https://t.co/BUqYBYsrIM pic.twitter.com/gR1zjNpSsg
— CBS News Politics (@CBSPolitics) March 9, 2016
10:30 P.M.
Ouch.
Ed Rollins: Rubio has absolutely FAILED as a candidate, it’s over for him https://t.co/o8marwoUxz#SuperTuesday
— (R) Conservatives (@teaparty321) March 9, 2016
Whatever you think of Trump’s steaks, the guy sure can win primaries.
Since Trump wants to talk about his steaks The reviews of Trump Steaks are hilariously bad https://t.co/Gxizr9w7pa #nevertrump #supertuesday
— PrettyGirlG¯_(ツ)_/¯ (@PRETTYGIRLGG11) March 9, 2016
10:24 P.M.
Even if Sanders wins Michigan tonight, he still has a long road ahead.
The road ahead for Sanders is long even if he pulls off what would be a shocking victory in Michigan: https://t.co/XWzghOanYS #PrimaryDay
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) March 9, 2016
But Michigan brings Trump to 14 primary wins.
The Latest on #Election2016: #MichiganPrimary is @realDonaldTrump‘s 14th primary win. https://t.co/ntyRDlVZKw pic.twitter.com/NuiJjHI9aM
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) March 9, 2016
10:21 P.M.
Why Matt Continetti can’t support Trump:
People who disagree with you on policy attain positions of power all the time. People who throw stability of regime into question do not.
— Matthew Continetti (@continetti) March 9, 2016
And Sanders supporters are anxious for their guy.
Refresh. Refresh. Refresh. #MichiganPrimary #FeelTheBern
— Katelyn Achatz (@KatelynAchatz) March 9, 2016
10:16 P.M.
Arab-Americans for Bernie?
US city w/ largest ArabAmerican pop is Dearborn: 64/36 for Bernie. Arab-Americans for the socialist Jewish dude! https://t.co/TIOIrBFmlC
— Connor Kilpatrick (@ckilpatrick) March 9, 2016
Want to know what qualities mattered for the supporters of what candidates?
As candidates debate, a look the qualities GOP #SuperTuesday voters were looking for: https://t.co/IPW35yBPo1 pic.twitter.com/fUAdY83MXo
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) March 4, 2016
10:13 P.M.
Michigan — 50 percent reporting:
Trump — 37.1 percent, 21 delegates. Kasich — 25.3 percent, 15 delegates. Cruz — 24.0 percent, 12 delegates. Rubio — 9.0 percent, 0 delegates.
Mississippi — 55 percent reporting:
Trump — 49.5 percent, 20 delegates. Cruz — 35.3 percent, 0 delegates. Kasich — 7.9 percent, 0 delegates. Rubio — 4.8 percent, 0 delegates.
So far — and these numbers are not final — Trump won 40 delegates, Kasich 15, and Cruz 12 tonight. There are still more votes to count and delegates to be awarded, however.
10:08 P.M.
Sanders should do well in Michigan, if he’s tied with Clinton nationally.
If Sanders were tied with Clinton nationally, he should win Michigan by 4 ppt. Hmm… https://t.co/gx1wGAkB2V pic.twitter.com/LDuyoB6PcM
— Andrew Flowers (@andrewflowers) March 9, 2016
10:03 P.M.
Could Cruz come in second in Michigan?
All of that attributable to Oakland County, which is almost all reported. Rest of state on balance leaning Cruz. https://t.co/Kr4y0qCBto
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 9, 2016
Steve Forbes finds Bernie Sanders’s surprise strength “amazing.”
What in the world is happening in Dem Michigan Primary!? This is amazing. #MichiganPrimary
— Steve Forbes (@SteveForbesCEO) March 9, 2016
9:59 P.M.
Trump is SOOOOO presidential.
Trump: More presidential than Washington, Jefferson, Madison, TR, FDR, Eisenhower, JFK, Reagan … (but not, he says, Lincoln. Modest).
— Matthew Continetti (@continetti) March 9, 2016
And this is interesting.
The @AP count has Trump at 50.4% in MS, but that includes supposed 81% Trump in Rankin County (Jackson burbs). Likely error.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 9, 2016
9:55 P.M.
Nate Silver with advice for the #NeverTrump movement:
With Donald Trump having a good night, Republicans hoping to stop him will be thinking about next steps. One good sign for them is that theMichigan exit poll found Trump losing to Cruz 46 percent to 37 percent — with 12 percent of voters sitting out the race — in a hypothetical two-way matchup.
As Bloomberg’s Sahil Kapur reminds us, however, Cruz was once an unpalatable option to “establishment” Republicans and remains that way among his colleagues in the Senate, who have given him no endorsements. Cruz does have quite a few endorsements among state legislators, however, which could be important because state parties could potentially have quite a bit of power in the event of a contested convention.
It’s official — “Move to Canada” searches hit a new record.
Google says searches for ‘Move to Canada’ highest in history after #SuperTuesday https://t.co/mnpxELhx3t pic.twitter.com/mTSBPaX3an
— The Hill (@thehill) March 2, 2016
9:51 P.M.
The real winner of tonight?
Tonight’s REAL winner: Saturday Night Live for the next 4 years.#SuperTuesday pic.twitter.com/BcweCDzKED
— ClotureClub.com (@ClotureClub) March 9, 2016
And some people want to move to Canada for some reason.
“Move to Canada” Google searches spike after #SuperTuesday – @CBSNLive https://t.co/L2U5HCVTwx pic.twitter.com/Nku2wawGYh
— CBS News (@CBSNews) March 3, 2016
9:39 P.M.
Trump: “If I want to be, I can be more presidential than anybody…other than the Great Abe Lincoln.”
Michigan results with 34 percent reporting:
Trump — 37.5 percent. Kasich — 25.6 percent. Cruz — 23.3 percent. Rubio — 9.0 percent.
Mississippi results with 26 percent reporting:
Trump — 49.5 percent. Cruz — 35.4 percent. Kasich — 7.9 percent. Rubio — 4.6 percent.
9:36 P.M.
Trump says “it’s harder for a Republican to win the presidency by a factor of 5.” The Donald says that in a general election, he would win New York, Michigan, Virginia, and more. Is Trump right about the weakness of the G.O.P.?
Forget what you’ve heard: Republicans Have the Demographic Edge in 2016 http://t.co/1FgH6bMt8f
— Tyler O’Neil (@Tyler2ONeil) September 7, 2015
Here’s an image from Trump’s press conference:
Trump Steaks, Water, Wine all available for the media at his #SuperTuesday Presser
In your face @MittRomney pic.twitter.com/Q7SGq2Gk3Z
— Jared Wyand (@JaredWyand) March 9, 2016
9:31 P.M.
Trump attacks Cruz as “lying Ted.” Says, “I’m a very good Christian. They’re chipping away at Christianity and the Evangelicals get it, they understand me, and I’ll be the best thing that happened to them.”
Rubio dismisses the meaning of his losses — Florida will determine all. Is this wishful thinking?
Rubio: “Winner of the Florida Republican primary will be the nominee” https://t.co/EX69BqnCcA pic.twitter.com/Gin4r7iCHa
— The Hill (@thehill) March 9, 2016
9:28 P.M.
Donald Trump thanks Megyn Kelly and Charles Krauthammer who acknowledged he did well tonight.
Bernie Sanders is surprisingly competitive in Michigan. Here’s Nate Silver on what that means:
If Sanders winds up winning in Michigan, in fact, it will count as among the greatest polling errors in primary history. Clinton led by 21.3 percentage points in our final Michigan polling average. Previously, the candidate with the largest lead to lose a state in our database of well-polled primaries and caucuses was Walter Mondale, who led in New Hampshire by 17.1 percentage points but lost to Gary Hart in 1984.
9:26 P.M.
Yes, here’s Trump magazine.
Donald Trump, GOP frontrunner, plugging his magazine during a primary victory speech. pic.twitter.com/3nHKFwLD7a
— Ryan Beckler (@RyanBeckler) March 9, 2016
9:21 P.M.
Cruz is beating Trump with women in Michigan:
Trump has long done somewhat better with male Republicans, but the gender gap seems to be growing: https://t.co/2aJ3VZOd2c #PrimaryDay
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) March 9, 2016
Trump says polls show him beating Clinton. Here are some examples:
Those ‘polls’ showing Trump beating Clinton pic.twitter.com/IMYEjK2sLk
— Matthew Continetti (@continetti) March 9, 2016
9:17 P.M.
Trump says “the single biggest story in politics today” is the increased turnout in Republican primaries, while Democrats are down. Says Democrats and Independents are coming over to his campaign.
“I want to thank the special interests and the lobbyists, because they have to have done something for those numbers.”
Says Paul Ryan “couldn’t be nicer.”
9:13 P.M.
Trump is speaking now: $38 million worth of lies but his wins “show the public is smarter.”
Points out Paul O’Neill of the Yankees, who comes from Ohio. Trump says “do you endorse me? Thank you!”
9:08 P.M.
Could Ted Cruz still surprise in Michigan, even with Trump’s win? Here’s David Wasserman:
So far, Ted Cruz is winning heavily Dutch and evangelical Ottawa County in Michigan with 47 percent, to 20 percent for Kasich and 19 percent for Trump. Trump will win Michigan tonight, but Cruz’s huge margin in this western Michigan county bodes well for his chances of overtaking Kasich for second place.
And FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver claims victory.
As a result, our “polls-only” forecast projected the tally at Trump 39, Cruz 23, Kasich 22, Rubio 13. Meanwhile, our “polls-plus” forecast had it Trump 37, Kasich 24, Cruz 23, Rubio 14. The results so far — with Kasich’s strongest areas probably overrepresented a bit and Cruz’s underrepresented — are Trump 38, Kasich 27, Cruz 22, Rubio 9. It looks as though Kasich picked up a few late votes from Rubio, but otherwise polling averages will have done a pretty good job.
9:06 P.M.
Michigan is called for Trump.
BREAKING: Trump fends off Kasich to win Michigan primary https://t.co/Xp5JQ5nWhe pic.twitter.com/7OHqnc8XGt
— The Hill (@thehill) March 9, 2016
Yuge! Trump wins Michigan.https://t.co/7IJxNaJbzR pic.twitter.com/fPNcuOihYs
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) March 9, 2016
9:03 P.M.
The real anti-Trump movement may have just begun.
Donald Trump is being hammered by negative ads – for the first time https://t.co/vHlO70PLxQ
— – (@krs21da) March 9, 2016
Here’s a livestream of Trump’s press conference tonight.
LIVE Stream: Donald Trump Press Conference from Jupiter, FL (3-8-16) https://t.co/78zkpoxJLb via @YouTube
— Cam Loon (@Cam_Loon) March 9, 2016
8:58 P.M.
This is far funnier than it should be.
If Donald Trump Sounded Like a Baby (Vine by @MeghanWMcCarthy) https://t.co/zXvnIgSenZ
— chels (@stevexbuscemi) March 9, 2016
Mississippi and Michigan may be Trump’s, but Idaho could be Cruz’s sleeper.
From @LifeZette: This is Ted Cruz’s path to major momentum in today’s primaries https://t.co/HBQSuILJT4 pic.twitter.com/0VRPYEpEjN
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) March 8, 2016
8:54 P.M.
Self-identified Evangelicals are backing Trump.
.@marthamaccallum: “[@tedcruz]’s running behind Trump w/ those who say yes, they are an evangelical Christian.” pic.twitter.com/INbvB92xoo
— Fox News (@FoxNews) March 9, 2016
First Things breaks it down:
The myth of the evangelical Trump voters: https://t.co/LlqqcgC8ZY pic.twitter.com/EkLRoQEWWH
— First Things (@firstthingsmag) March 7, 2016
8:51 P.M.
The story of a Rubio loss is gaining steam.
Beginning of the end for Rubio #MIPrimary https://t.co/6uzfQXyPAu
— Ruby Love (@woobieluv) March 9, 2016
Fortune magazine on Trump’s success:
Donald Trump’s Southern strategy is paying off https://t.co/X9nxFndd9f
— Fortune (@FortuneMagazine) March 9, 2016
8:47 P.M.
Will Rubio be tonight’s real loser?
It now looks like Marco Rubio will be shut out of delegates in BOTH Michigan and Mississippi.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 9, 2016
Here’s some professional advice on how to deal with Trump victories.
I speak from experience when I say alcohol is very helpful in coping with the rise of Donald Trump.
— Matthew Continetti (@continetti) March 9, 2016
8:41 P.M.
FiveThirtyEight’s David Wasserman predicts Trump will win Michigan:
It’s pretty clear at this point that Donald Trump will win Michigan. He’s beating John Kasich in Oakland County now (the richest and best-educated large suburb in the state), and he’s well ahead of Cruz and Kasich in most rural counties. There could be an interesting battle for second place between Cruz and Kasich, though. Cruz is running well ahead of Kasich in rural and western counties, but Kasich is running well ahead of Cruz in the Detroit suburbs.
Kasich’s camp hopes for a strong showing to boost the Ohio governor in his home state.
.@jonathanserrie: “@JohnKasich supporters believe a good night in #Michigan could help him close the gap in #Ohio.” pic.twitter.com/PJvt0WrK0X
— Fox News (@FoxNews) March 8, 2016
8:38 P.M.
Michigan — 9 percent reporting:
Donald Trump — 37.6 percent. John Kasich — 29.6 pecent. Ted Cruz — 20.4 percent. Marco Rubio — 8.6 percent.
And people think Sanders has a shot in Michigan.
.@BernieSanders odds to win Michigan skyrocket from 9% to 59% on https://t.co/V3XYRfmx9Q as the results come in. pic.twitter.com/4mGPe0MwRo
— Pivit (@pivit) March 9, 2016
8:35 P.M.
Fox and NBC call Mississippi for Trump.
BREAKING: Donald Trump is projected winner of the Mississippi GOP primary. More: https://t.co/6CNmV24RDc pic.twitter.com/Bh0bRsc0Ho
— NBC News (@NBCNews) March 9, 2016
But there is also this.
New ABC News/WaPo poll finds Cruz and Rubio beating Donald Trump in head-to-head matchups: https://t.co/so3g3neWp6 pic.twitter.com/hgpjrXRs10
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) March 8, 2016
8:30 P.M.
Just a reminder, if you live in any of these states — besides Mississippi — go vote!
Today, GOP voters in Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, and Mississippi head to the polls. pic.twitter.com/OkhmCxd7Xr
— GOP (@GOP) March 8, 2016
Trump pulls ahead in Michigan.
Michigan is looking like a 2-man race tonight for the GOP.
And I say that respectfully. pic.twitter.com/QB5xEWCmhT
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) March 9, 2016
8:26 P.M.
63 percent of Republicans who don’t support Trump support a contested convention.
ABC/WaPo poll: 63% of Republicans who don’t support Trump support a contested convention: https://t.co/SBsdC1Vv1B pic.twitter.com/dEOueXM82A
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) March 8, 2016
And this is how badly both Trump and Cruz are doing in Mississippi.
wow trump and cruz both underperforming badly in mississippi pic.twitter.com/GhDHHH9IuS
— James Taranto (@jamestaranto) March 9, 2016
8:23 P.M.
Exit polls on Trump — roughly half of Republican voters think he’s trustworthy and would be satisfied with him.
Almost half of GOP voters in Michigan, Mississippi view Trump as dishonest and would be dissatisfied if he won: pic.twitter.com/7wjcDfrbKV
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) March 9, 2016
And this is insane — male Dems go heavy for Hillary in Mississippi.
Hillary Clinton won 3/4 of male Democratic Mississippi voters, per preliminary exit polls: https://t.co/oPvwaVou2h pic.twitter.com/puqMcoQEFw
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) March 9, 2016
8:20 P.M.
Michigan voters just really want those ballots.
Michigan struggling with overwhelming ballot demand in primaries https://t.co/qSRnfQW8l0 pic.twitter.com/OmPiGCURd2
— The Hill (@thehill) March 9, 2016
And will JOHN KASICH win the Michigan primary?
Results are coming in for Michigan GOP primary. Our results update every 15 seconds: https://t.co/ynR3ewHUKx pic.twitter.com/LL2F9MlKVp
— The Boston Globe (@BostonGlobe) March 9, 2016
8:17 P.M.
Ted Cruz may be the most conservative candidate we could possibly get.
Ted Cruz is to the right of pretty much everyone: https://t.co/uPF6HSo7RV #PrimaryDay pic.twitter.com/r1SXLK5muh
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) March 9, 2016
And this is fascinating. There must be something in the Mississippi water.
How is it possible that 65% of Mississippi voters found Hillary Clinton to be trustworthy (as opposed to 34% for Bernie Sanders). What even?
— Vas Drimalitis (@vasdrimalitis) March 9, 2016
8:10 P.M.
John Kasich predicts contested convention.
.@JohnKasich: It’s increasingly looking like no one “will have the delegates they need” https://t.co/ixbo4KdXye https://t.co/PqWp0em0Uf
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) March 8, 2016
And Mississippians and Michiganders in the G.O.P. are angry at the federal government.
Exit polls: Mississippians and Michiganders are angry with the federal government https://t.co/DKPa4oDj8P pic.twitter.com/YbfLUJUCGK
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) March 8, 2016
8:07 P.M.
Now that’s a close race, called right after the polls closed.
BREAKING: Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic presidential primary in Mississippi. @AP race call at 8 p.m. EST. #Election2016 #APracecall
— The Associated Press (@AP) March 9, 2016
And G.O.P. exit polls show very conservative voters for Cruz, somewhat conservatives and moderates going huge for Trump.
Miss GOP
Very conservative
Cruz 51%
Trump 40Somewhat cons
Trump 48%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 13
Kasich 11Mod
Trump 48%
Cruz 19
Kasich 16
Rubio 11— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) March 9, 2016
8:04 P.M.
Polls have closed in Mississippi, results should come in soon.
Romney’s attack on Trump seems to have helped The Donald:
Poll: Romney’s anti-Trump speech helped Trump gain support https://t.co/AfiXy7D950 pic.twitter.com/OwOcMjhTDK
— The Hill (@thehill) March 8, 2016
And this is comforting.
Trump: “My whole life has been about taking, grabbing, greed” https://t.co/zG33e873DR pic.twitter.com/4dNQlwhgtq
— The Hill (@thehill) March 9, 2016
8:02 P.M.
Has Rubio lost his late deciders advantage?
Rubio, who usually does well with late deciders, seems to have failed to do so tonight: https://t.co/y8vpPyZto2 #primaryday
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) March 9, 2016
And some say the party is deciding against Trump.
The party decides … it doesn’t want to nominate Trump (but it may nonetheless) https://t.co/VznCbnhJOW
— Matthew Continetti (@continetti) March 8, 2016
7:57 P.M.
John Oliver couldn’t make enough “Make Donald Drumpf Again” hats.
John Oliver sells out of “Make Donald Drumpf Again” hats https://t.co/L4xReytQBy pic.twitter.com/albGFwabV8
— The Hill (@thehill) March 9, 2016
Trump has newly high “unfavorable” ratings.
Two new national polls find @realDonaldTrump‘s *UNFAVORABLE* rating approaching 70%. https://t.co/POIM84z3vT pic.twitter.com/oQv7hZu77A
— Brandon (@Brand_Allen) March 8, 2016
7:54 P.M.
Mississippi voters are concerned about the economy.
The Latest: Mississippi voters very worried about economy: The Latest on Mississippi presidential primary (all… https://t.co/b0F5VNObGN
— Politics Sacramento (@POLSSacramento) March 9, 2016
And now for some good old-fashioned humor.
Nation Not Sure What Signals It Gave Off To Make Candidates Think It Would Be Into Them https://t.co/ywCPEbF1Rr pic.twitter.com/G3ZVlPLEmR
— The Onion (@TheOnion) March 9, 2016
7:48 P.M.
John Kasich leading among late-deciders in Michigan, followed closely by Ted Cruz:
.@JohnKasich Leads With Late-Deciding Voters in #MichiganPrimary @BretBaier @marthamaccallum https://t.co/PAwTgqzGo1 pic.twitter.com/GwqYJjAeFs
— FoxNewsInsider (@FoxNewsInsider) March 8, 2016
Mississippi Dems are fans of Obama.
7/10 Democratic Mississippi voters want next president to continue Pres. Obama’s policies https://t.co/ixBbye8t3L pic.twitter.com/JI6Zeuakf3
— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) March 8, 2016
7:43 P.M.
John Kasich releases taxes, calls on Trump to do the same.
John Kasich releases taxes, pressures @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/4BYWio9Wc3
— Team Cruz (@TeamTedCruz) March 7, 2016
Here are FiveThirtyEight’s Michigan projections — looks pretty good for Trump.
#PrimaryDay https://t.co/pG8owzxhsr pic.twitter.com/B97vNyqJmv
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) March 9, 2016
7:40 P.M.
This may hurt Cruz among the anti-establishment voters:
BUSH BRO JOINS CRUZ… https://t.co/7raBUctYGM
— DRUDGE REPORT (@DRUDGE_REPORT) March 9, 2016
Hit and run? You don’t mess with The Donald.
Egyptian Student To Leave U.S. After Threatening Donald Trump On Facebook https://t.co/LfFoPowyNW pic.twitter.com/ZWduimCUAD
— BuzzFeed News (@BuzzFeedNews) March 8, 2016
7:38 P.M.
Bad polls for The Donald:
Matched head-to-head against Cruz, Rubio & Kasich, #Trump trails by 17 points, 13 points & 17 points, respectively https://t.co/bAxsvKR7Eq
— Linda Yueh (@lindayueh) March 8, 2016
And Ted Cruz mocks Trump’s call for his supporters to pledge to vote for him.
.@TedCruz slams Trump’s “raise your hand” pledge: “There is something that strikes me profoundly wrong about that.”https://t.co/d30T0jhB9W
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) March 9, 2016
7:35 P.M.
Here’s political guru Donald Trump on the state of the Mississippi primary:
Cruz came to Mississippi, there was nobody there, he left the state. I had a rally in Madison, MS with 10,000!
Thank you!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 8, 2016
Here’s Mississippi’s Governor:
Mississippi Governor Endorses Ted Cruz Before Primary https://t.co/NhdivERFfj #election2016
— PJ Media (@PJMedia_com) March 8, 2016
7:27 P.M.
Here’s the state of the polls in Mississippi and Michigan:
Trump and Clinton lead Mississippi and Michigan polls – live election updates https://t.co/VVVlwe8Wcd
— The Guardian (@guardian) March 8, 2016
And here’s how Trump, Cruz, and Rubio shape up when compared to their FiveThirtyEight targets. Naturally, this is debatable:
The delegate races so far: https://t.co/TfmNronOPf #primaries pic.twitter.com/QgAaghNWdC
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) March 8, 2016
7:23 P.M.
Here’s a nice little recap of the night’s festivities:
Who’s voting tonight for #SuperTuesday Round II? We’ve got you covered: https://t.co/9SnXkwo6w4 pic.twitter.com/pTWOJqkYtM
— CNN (@CNN) March 8, 2016
Campaign ads are starting to add up against Trump. From FiveThirtyEight’s David Wasserman:
According to CMAG/Kantar Media’s Elizabeth Wilner and Mitchell West, the proportion of anti-Trump ads (either by unaffiliated PACs or candidate-affiliated super PACs) as a percentage of all GOP ads has grown from 9 percent at the beginning of February to 47 percent in the first week of March. In terms of dollars, anti-Trump ads grew from 15 percent of all GOP ad spending in the first week of February to 62 percent in the first week of March.
7:00 P.M.
Tonight, four more states vote in the Republican primary and two more in the Democratic. Results from both parties in Mississippi will come first at 8 P.M. Eastern Time. Then Michigan will follow at 9 P.M., also for both. The Republican contests in Idaho will be released around 11 P.M. and Hawaii around 1 A.M. It’s going to be a long night, so strap yourselves in!
Tonight is very unpredictable. On Super Tuesday, Donald Trump dominated, but Cruz gained three states and Marco Rubio won his first in Minnesota. This past Saturday, Cruz surged to take Kansas and Maine by large margins, and Trump only won Kentucky and Louisiana with Cruz nipping at his heels. Rubio lost badly on Saturday, but his win in Puerto Rico on Sunday may have helped him regain steam.
Trump leads by large margins in the recent polls in Michigan and Mississippi, but there are only two recent Mississippi polls and Ben Carson was in both. Furthermore, the Governator himself, Arnold Schwarzenegger, just endorsed John Kasich, while Chuck Norris and Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant endorsed Ted Cruz.
The stage is set for upsets on the G.O.P. side, but Clinton is a heavy favorite to win among the Democrats. She leads Sanders in both Michigan and Mississippi by healthy margins.
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