Ed Driscoll

Landslide vs. 'Don’t Get Cocky'

A contributor to the libertarian Chicago Boyz econo-blog writes:

Glenn Reynolds links to Paul Rahe’s prediction that we’re about to see a 1980-type electoral landslide for Romney.

I want Rahe to be right but the bookmakers’ odds give me pause.

Intrade.com has Obama at 60% odds to be reelected. Other bookmakers are in the same ballpark.

It’s possible that these market odds are overly influenced by inaccurate polls. The odds certainly respond to polling data. However, the bookies have a very good record of predicting election results.

On Intrade, before November 2004, Bush’s odds only went as low as 50% a couple of times and always bounced from there. Obama’s odds are behaving like that now. If Obama’s numbers sink below 50% and stay there I’ll feel a lot better. As of now there is much reason to worry.

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