Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) struggles to make himself stand out from his fellow Democrats. While this would not be a problem for most lawmakers in safe seats, it spells trouble for the senator facing a competitive race this November.
A recent OH Predictive Insights poll revealed that Kelly is 2% behind a generic Republican, 39% to 37%, according to the Washington Examiner. This is a drop from a previous OH Predictive Insights survey among registered voters from January, in which Kelly led with 42% compared with a generic Republican’s 38%.
Unlike his counterpart, Sen. Krysten Sinema (D-Ariz.), he has failed to publicly establish himself as a moderate on most issues. He has not been a vocal advocate against the border crisis and has supported the radical proposal to nuke the filibuster. Of course, Sinema received a censure from the Arizona Democratic Party in January over the filibuster, but she is not up for re-election until 2024.
His willingness to go along with the Democrats’ agenda has kept him in good standing with the party, even though maintaining steadfast partisan support means little in Arizona. The state still leans Republican and has many conservative and moderate swing voters. Those who are frustrated with the Biden administration and the Democrat-controlled Congress will not hesitate to throw him out.
If he’s already sinking in the polls, just wait until the general election kicks off. State Attorney General Mark Brnovich is expected to win the Republican primary, and his already significant name recognition in the state will make him an even match with Kelly.
Republicans will likely hammer Kelly on inflation and the border crisis, along with Biden & Co.’s other numerous failures, so he will continue to see his numbers dip.
While Kelly will win no friends on the national stage if he wants to set himself apart from Biden’s disaster of a presidency, he may be able to cling to some suburban voters. The Arizona Republic pointed out earlier this week that Kelly and state Democrats need to also retain Latino voters, who have recently shown some shift nationwide toward Republicans.
Republicans in the Grand Canyon State lost ground in 2020, but Biden should make their job easy this election cycle. Kelly has brought nothing new to the table and has done little to show that he’s interested in representing Arizonans of all party affiliations. He simply rides on the coattails of Sinema when it’s politically convenient and will occasionally work with Republicans on less controversial border policies, but he has failed to establish himself as a distinct voice.
Arizonans will struggle to know what he stands for at the ballot box.
