Ike back over water; still moving due west

9/8, 1:21 PM EDT: Hurricane Ike did not made the expected west-northwest turn overnight, which would have kept its core over the spine of Cuba, and instead has continued plowing ahead on a due west course. As a result, Ike’s center has now re-emerged over water in the western Caribbean Sea, just south of Cuba, after about 14 hours over land.

Visible satellite at 12:15 PM EDT. Live loop here.

The computer models still insist on a WNW turn, and so does the official NHC forecast track. However, given Ike’s present location, it now likely — even if the expected turn does finally materialize — to remain centered over water for most of the next 36 hours:

On such a track, Cuba’s mountains would still likely interfere somewhat with Ike’s circulation, but the storm’s central core would remain over warm water, and thus we should expect less weakening than originally anticipated. The NHC’s 11am EDT discussion acknowledges as much:

EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WILL BE BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF CUBA SOON. IF THIS MATERIALIZES…IKE MIGHT NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN…AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD WHILE IKE IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN.

Specifically, Ike is now forecast to weaken only to a Category 1 hurricane, rather than a tropical storm. After that, re-strengthening is forecast over the Gulf of Mexico, bringing Ike back to major hurricane status in four days.

There’s nothing much new to say about Ike’s eventual Gulf coast destination — we still just don’t know, and probably won’t begin to have a clearer idea until the storm clears Cuba. We can now say, however, that the Florida Keys appear to be out of the woods. But as Alan Sullivan writes:

Evacuating Key West was the right thing to do, though it has proven unnecessary. Islanders are too far from safety to wait until the last minute. Prudent evacuations ought to be accepted as a small price for the pleasures of life there.

Dr. Jeff Masters and Eric Berger have much more on Ike. (Berger thinks any evacuation orders for parts of the Houston/Galveston area would begin late Tuesday or early Wednesday, once Ike emerges from Cuba, if the forecast track remains aimed at the area.)

In addition, Berger will have a live chat on Ike at 3:00 PM EDT.

Also, here are links to various Cuban radar sites, which will come in handy over the next couple of days. And here’s a helpful composite loop of all the sites.