"North Carolina is the ultimate purple state – perched on the razor’s edge between red and blue – between Republican and Democrat," writes Christopher Cooper in his Wednesday USA Today editorial, "Opinion: Will Trump or Harris win? Helene-ravaged NC may be the difference this election." Cooper is a widely published political scientist who specializes in the electoral dynamics of the Tar Heel State. He is also the author of a new book on all things North Carolina politics, "Anatomy of a Purple State: A North Carolina Politics Primer."
Tight Margins
Cooper refreshes everyone's memory about the most recent general election:
In 2020, Republican Donald Trump won North Carolina and its 15 Electoral College votes when fewer than 75,000 of the state's voters picked him over Democrat Joe Biden. It was the smallest margin of any state Trump won then.
In the same election, Democrat Josh Stein held onto his position as North Carolina attorney general by fewer than 14,000 votes and Republican Paul Newby became the chief justice of the state Supreme Court by a scant 401 votes.
"Electoral margins in North Carolina are small," concludes Cooper.
In an interview with Indy Week, Cooper explains that North Carolina has the second-largest rural voting pool in the country and that it is not dominated by a large city, as are most other states. So while a Democrat can win state-wide office in, say, Georgia by goosing the Atlanta-area turnout, that won't work in North Carolina. Instead, Cooper says that Harris need not outright win the rural counties; she has only to lose them by less to make a difference state-wide. "[Just] cut in a little bit to the rural margins," says Cooper in hypothetical advice to the Harris campaign. "Again, nobody expects the Democrats to win Swain County, but if they can lose by slightly smaller margins, things will be better for them."
Conversely, his advice to the Trump campaign was, "[Keep] doing what you’ve been doing. Make sure that you pay attention to the rural vote, they’re in no danger of losing it by any stretch but if the Harris folks can cut into the margins in the rural parts of the state, it can make a difference."
Hurricane Helene Aftereffects
But what about the effects of Hurricane Helene on voter turnout? The affected counties lean Republican. "In the 2020 election, voters in those 13 counties cast 55% of their votes for Trump and 45% for Biden," Cooper noted in his column.
So, while it’s too early to know the ultimate electoral effects of Helene, it’s safe to conclude that if turnout does suffer, it will make a difference in who wins North Carolina and, ultimately, who resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue come January.
After all, about 600,000 registered voters live in the 13 counties most affected by Helene – and a drop of just a few percentage points could make a marginal difference in a battleground state where margins matter most.
Cooper expects Helene to have its most depressive effect on Election Day voters; early in-person and mail-in voters in the storm-ravaged area have stayed on par with their counterparts elsewhere in the state.
What to Expect on Election Day
The North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE) published information about how votes are counted and results reported in the state. Here are some quick facts culled from the NCSBE site:
By state law, polls close at 7:30 p.m. November 5. Any voters in line when the polls close are eligible to vote. If a disruption at a polling place causes an interruption in voting on Election Day, the State Board has the authority under N.C.G.S. § 163-166.25 to extend voting hours beyond 7:30 p.m. for that polling place only. […]
Unofficial election results will be reported as they become available on the State Board’s Election Results Dashboard. Once polls close at 7:30 p.m., the Dashboard is updated regularly throughout election night as county boards of elections report results…
The NCSBE expects 98% of the vote to be tabulated and reported on Election Night, though it stresses that this will be an unofficial result. A 10-day canvass period follows Election Day, during which "the counties meet to consider additional eligible absentee ballots and provisional ballots." This year only, among the votes counted during this period will be "certain absentee ballots dropped off by voters from the 25 counties affected by Hurricane Helene at election offices or early voting sites outside of the voters’ home counties…."
Other Races and Things to Know
2024 will be the first general election held in North Carolina since the state adopted a photo ID requirement for in-person voting (early or on Election Day). A photocopy of an acceptable ID is required for mail voters.
Since the 2020 election, North Carolina has gained an Electoral College vote and a congressional seat because of its increase in population. The state will have 16 electoral votes in the 2024 election.
No U.S. Senate seats are being decided this year in North Carolina. The state is currently represented by Sens. Thom Tillis and Ted Budd, both Republicans.
All 14 U.S. Representative seats are up for grabs. In 2022, Republicans and Democrats evenly divided these seats at seven each. This year, 270toWin foresees four of these seats flipping red, leaving N.C. with 10 Republican and just three Democrat reps in the U.S. House.
The map used [in 2022] was implemented by judicial order, after the State Supreme Court threw out maps approved by the Legislature.
In late 2023, the General Assembly enacted new maps heavily favoring Republicans. While new litigation has been filed, the updated maps will be effective for at least 2024 elections, given the early date of the state's primary.
Districts 6, 13, and 14 are highly likely to flip to the GOP under the new lines. All three Democratic incumbents are retiring or running for another office. The three districts are now among just eight Trump-Democratic districts nationwide. These are districts represented by a Democrat, but which Donald Trump won in 2020.
District 1, held by Democrat Don Davis, was also made somewhat more favorable for Republicans. It is expected to be the only truly competitive district in 2024.
Additionally, many major state-wide offices are on the ballot, including governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, and attorney general.
The State of the Race
As of this writing (Sunday afternoon), the RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump up 1.4 points in North Caroline with 48.8% to Harris's 47.4%.
X numbers-cruncher @DataRepublican reports that, as early voting concludes, Republicans are going into Election Day with a +41,729 advantage. "This lead has never happened in North Carolina," observes DataRepublican; "When I apply this projection to other years, Democrats had a 5% or better lead going in." While this is encouraging to hear, in a state with an expected 5.5 million voters this year, it is still a virtual tie.
"The state wrapped up its 17-day early voting period, and the current tally of 4.44 million votes represents roughly 80% of the expected electorate," Michael Pruser of Decision Desk HQ posted on X on Sunday. He pins the final expected electorate in North Carolina at +1 to +3 Republican — but "Others" are outvoting both Rs and Ds as of now (Others-1,524,456, Republicans-1,478,746, Democrats-1,437,281.)
When asked, "If the independents vote the same way they did in 2020, does Trump still carry the state?" Pruser responded, "Yes, by a sizable margin."
This is all very encouraging, but nothing is as predictable as it used to be. The road to 270 electoral votes may very well run through North Carolina this year, a state in which it will come down to the turnout on Election Day itself.
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