Ike model run shifts south; Florida Keys evacuated

Dr. Jeff Masters has a quick update on Hurricane Ike:

[T]he latest 18Z (2 pm EDT) computer model runs have completed. The newest tracks of the GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET are all about 50 miles further south than before, bringing Ike over eastern Cuba, then along Cuba or just south of Cuba before popping out into the Gulf of Mexico. The other two models, the GFS and NOGAPS, did not change their forecasts appreciably, and forecast a track through the Keys without hitting Cuba. These new model runs imply a slight lessening of the risk of Ike hitting South Florida, Southwest Florida, and the central and western Bahamas. However, the risk to the Keys is still unacceptably high, and a mandatory evacuation order has been given. I urge all Keys residents to comply with the evacuation orders. Ike is capable of causing a 14-foot storm surge in the Keys, as Hurricane Donna did in 1960. This is a storm you must evacuate for.

Here is the latest computer-model “spaghetti” track, courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University:

The easternmost turquoise track, it should noted, is not a “real” computer model, but a “dummy” model based purely on climatology and persistence. Likewise, the gray track that takes Ike over eastern Cuba and continues west-southwestward is simply the extrapolation of the current forward motion — not a computer model at all. In between those two lines lie the various reasonably likely scenarios for Ike’s future path. A wide range, as you can see.

The paths that take Ike over significant portions of Cuba would mean a weaker storm near south Florida, but would also guarantee that Cuba absorbs a terrible blow from a hurricane for the second time in barely a week — and on the opposite side of the island. A more southward track would also be terrible news for storm-ravaged Haiti, as Charles Fenwick points out. And such a track might not even save the U.S. coast, as Ike could easily re-strengthen over the Gulf after exiting Cuba, particularly if it heads toward the northern Gulf coast rather than Florida’s west coast. (Just because Gustav didn’t, doesn’t mean Ike won’t.) Still, the worst-case scenario for the U.S. remains if Ike “shoots the gap” between Florida and Cuba. And that’s still entirely possible.

Meanwhile, Alan Sullivan updates Hanna, the less dangerous but more imminent storm:

Hanna is maintaining strong, continuous convection at its core, and I would not be surprised to see an upgrade to hurricane at 11 PM advisory time. A strong outer band has recently formed northeast of the core and is racing toward the Outer Banks at this time. Weather will be worsening all night along this stretch of coast. From the present trend of coastal radar, Hanna’s center should come ashore obliquely southwest of Myrtle Beach. At present there is intense thunderstorm activity near the center, but no eyewall structure is discernable. That may change in the last hours before landfall.

You can follow Hanna’s progress on the Charleston, Wilmington and Morehead City radar loops.

This will be my last update tonight; I’m retiring now, to get some sleep and nurse my sore throat and cold. Next update will be sometime in the morning. In the mean time, you can track Hanna via the radar links above, and follow both Ike and Hanna via the various links in my sidebar at right.